Digital Evangelist

Why Apple is bad for the Mobile Industry

2012-01-16T09:31:00.007Z

If you read this blog or follow me on Twitter then you will know that I am no fan of Apple.

I do not buy into the myth that they are interested in what the consumer wants but rather feel that they are very good at marketing compared to their peers.

The current focus on lets make everything a slim as possible is not a benefit but rather an obsession in controlling component manufacturers and in doing so setting prices. Why is Apple's management of the supply chain OK and Tesco's controlling of farmers wrong when they are both the same thing?

Recently I have been using my old Ericsson T68i and the ergonomics of the phone makes it a joy to hold and use. More importantly put the handset down on a surface and the rubber back means that it does not slide around. OK I am use the T68i as a PHONE and so was interested in calling and SMS rather than web based apps but then I was working rather than looking to fill dead time.

Because of Apple's lead as the trend setter other makers of Smartphones are all attempting to make handsets that look and function in the same way as an iPhone. I had hoped that design at Nokia had not been sacrificed on the "burning deck" of re-engineering the Firm undertaken by Steve Elop but unfortunately they seemed to have lost all their corporate intelligence. Nokia Engineering had grown too big but at one time they had people who were concerned by the response a user got when pushing a button and attempted to make the experience better.

What concern does Apple have for the user? I fear that it is more akin to IKEA than Georg Jensen. After a while as consumers learn more about how to use products that they own they understand the failings of low cost mass design and production and are willing to pay more for a better experience. Yet what improvement do we see with the iPhone in terms of industrial design?

If Jonathan Ive is a Design Hero then he needs to demonstrate such by following the actions of Dieter Rams rather than just mouthing kind words about his ability. Rams with Vitsoe and Braun was capable of designing products that function on a higher level than Apple has ever done. If you want to learn more then get yourself a copy of As Little Design As Possible.

Others are starting to realise that Apple's business practices are bad for the sector as a whole they do not seem to be in the UK or US but rather Germany and France where the company has a smaller impact as a whole. I have long been a advocate of the fact that most people do not seek to converge to a single device but rather are happy to carry a number of them. Sit on public transport and you can watch people switching between phone, MP3, e-reader, tablet rather than using a single device. Apple has benefitted from this divergence getting people to buy iPhone, iPod, iPad yet when it comes to the phone they offer one single device in terms of form factor.

If I want to create something then a touch screen device does not make it easy. Yes I know David Hockney makes art on his iPad but he also uses a Hasselblad and very large canvases and paint for his large public works. A keyboard with good design allows faster typing than I can do on an iPad even if that is a simple one such as on my T68i let alone a QWERTY design.

Then how about Apple giving a screen that is better in bright light that is also capable of falling three feet without breaking? My observation of others on Public Transport usually allows me to spot two or three broken iPhone screens. I do not see any broken Sony Ericsson, Samsung, HTC, Blackberry or Nokia screens.

If an iPhone is about wonderful User Interface design the can't I expect more of a physical interface than a single button?

Thinking about Mobile Handsets

2012-01-04T17:27:00.001Z

Over the last few weeks I have been looking at upgrading the handsets of my three daughters and so have reviewed what is on the market and what they wish to do with there phones.

This will be the fourth handset that my Twins have owned. At the moment they are happy users of a Blackberry Bold which are starting to show signs of age. They are not heavy users of either text or voice but they use BBM and Facebook with a little email. They are thus happy with the QWERTY form factor and when asked if they wanted a Blackberry Touch they declined as the find the lack of keyboard slows them down. They are looking for something that is robust enough to live with the knocks of life in a teenage girl’s pocket and bag that means it has to bounce before it breaks.

The youngest wants her second mobile phone to have a few more features that the basic candy bar she currently has. She does not want an iPhone as “the girls who have one at school are bullies and they all seem to be broken within a few weeks.” I have been looking at a number of Android handsets but she seems to like the Nokia Lumina 800 I have been playing with because it does not look girlie, has a good camera and the battery lasts.

When you look at the shelves in a phone retailer at the moment if you take the Blackberries away what you see is a Smartphone format that is almost uniform. It reminds me of the mid 1990s just as the industry was about to under go massive expansion and all you could have was a black brick, then Nokia launched the 5110i with snap on covers and Motorola and Samsung decided that we might like silver clamshells.

Perhaps we can pause for breath on the development of Operating systems and start to look at form factors? For a number of years I have thought that mobile users are unlikely to carry just one mobile phone when they are able to purchase devices and looking at fellow travellers on the train it does now seem that time has come. Not everyone wishes to carry a device with a 3½ to 4½ inch screen as a phone, so why not have some devices that don’t have a touch screen but rather a simple keyboard?

The interesting thing is that none of the three seem to be demanding a wide range of Apps with which to “personalize” their handset. The number of people they “chat” with on Facebook is a subset of their “Friends” with whom they are social both in the real and virtual world. They do want a device that gives access to YouTube. A VPN which would give access to catch up TV from both the UK and US would be very welcomed. But if that was not available no problem as they can do so via Laptop or Tablet.

When it comes to an upgrade of my handset, something that I can quickly synchronise with my car, laptop and headset would make life easy. As I tend to use my phone whilst driving something with very good voice command would be welcomed. I would love to get rid of the touch screen as too often I put my current phone in my pocket after use and the discover that because it was still active I have played audio books, surfed the web and changed the keyboard, theme etc. . Over the last 14 months my favorite handset has been my Vertu Ascent because it does what I want it to do and when I need something I just use the Concierge service.

Will 2011 be the year that we see that the iPhone had no clothes?

2010-12-22T14:02:00.001Z

I have spent most of this year questioning just how smart a phone is an iPhone. In my opinion it is neither smart or a phone. Its success can be put down to the fact that Apple have managed to create a massive buzz around it. A mixture of celebrity endorsement alongside massive advertising campaigns has made the device wanted by the public but does that make it a good phone?

To my mind the problem with the iPhone is that the App Store has failed to maintain innovation and the refresh of a new OS which saw Steve Jobs push facetime ™ as the new way to communicate show that Apple has grown tired. The Company seems to be pushing development in the area of the App Store with the focus on the iPad and Apple TV rather than making significant progress with phones. If I were a shareholder of Apple stock I would be asking when can we expect to see a similar diversity in form factor for phones as we see in iPods? What is the company doing to improve the quality of phone calls?

I accept that in some markets the iPhone has been very successful. However the same was true of Motorola with a number of handsets and look at them now. I am sure that for some the fact that you see so many with an iPhone has taken the luster off the product. A number of those I know who are currently using an iPhone 4 acknowledge that they have two-three old iPhones at home having upgraded as each new machine is released. Yes I know that the same can be said for Blackberry Users or Nokia fans but the buzz around them is not as loud.

Ask Motorola about how fast the consumer can turn and you will be told that the abandonment can be faster than the celebrity status of a contestant in Big Brother. I think that Apple will play a significant part in the mobile device market for quite some time. I do not think that the product will be a phone however. As consumers we tend not to converge on a single device but rather diverge. As consumers become more knowledgeable about costs and experiences they also demand more. The novelty of the App has long past for most of us and so we are looking at the utility of our devices.

The combination of living in the Cloud and the iPad means that I can now work without my MacBook Pro for most client engagements. Thus I carry a device that allows a better user experience than an iPhone when it comes to watching video, reading books/papers or casual web surfing. As I become someone who carries multiple mobile devices rather than have a mobile subscription for each I have bought a mifi dongle for those times when wifi is not available free of charge (my ISP gives me free access to hotspots as part of my service.)

So will Apple surprise us with an iPhone Nano; will we see HD Voice available on the iPhone 5 or will the iPhone become a museum exhibit? I think that Apple are focused on the revenue streams from the iTunes store and thus we may never see an iPhone7 as the exit the phone business.

So where in the centre of the mobile universe?

2010-10-26T17:02:00.005+01:00

Spent an enjoyable couple of hours today putting the world to rights with some guys I respect in the mobile ecosystem. After joking about now nothing can work unless it's invented by Steve Jobs and comes via an App we turned to trends developing now. Both said that they are considering relocating to San Francisco as at this moment it seems to be the centre of influence as to where Mobile is going. They say that at this moment it is where the money and brains are.

But wait is that true?

I fear that they may be drinking the wrong type of Kool-aid. Whilst at this moment in time everyone feels that the mobile industry rotates around planets Apple and Google these are bubbles similar to the property and internet hype. The risk is that the centring of focus in the Valley will limit the view of demand.

When it comes to adoption has the rise of the App been as successful as SMS, Voice Mail or Ring Back? Will history judge the iPhone and Android as nothing more than a ringtone?

If I were to start a new venture then my investment would be in machine-to-machine and/or mobile healthcare. Given that I would want to develop relationships that enable me to build and exit a business is the Valley the best hub? Should I chose to relocate could I cope with Americans claiming that they rule the mobile industry when they have no understanding of the global standards, have yet to come to terms with the pre paid market because of the idiosyncratic payment system in the US of receiver pays and coverage of mobile networks is patchwork?

But where would I set up?

Europe is fragmented with many small sites offering expertise when it comes to hardware/software/services but does not have the access to finance needed to develop start-ups.

India has lots of Engineers but does not seem to have the ethnographers needed to offer a usable interface. It would be like returning to a Motorola Razr, wonderful to look at but a disappointment to use on a daily basis.

Japan offers money, wonderful networks and engineers looking to develop things people will use. However very few make call on a phone and so what we see is pocket computers as we head towards the cloud.

Where would you set up to have the best chance of success?

What would I rather pick up my phone or my keys as I leave my house?

2010-10-11T13:14:00.001+01:00

Today Nokia launch their first NFC enabled handset.

With one of these phones can I replace my Oyster card? How about my NFC car fob? What about the Garage Door? An my Bank Card has NFC so can I replace that?

The answer to all these questions is at this moment in time is NO. Therein lies the problem with standalone development and the current fixation that the App Store is the answer.

Nokia has over the last four years been working with a number of stakeholders in the NFC ecosystems. Trials that I know of include a trial of season tickets at Manchester City Football Club, replacement of Oyster Cards in London, cash replacement trials in France. They have worked hard on the development of a technology standard that will replace card readers over time, they have studied hard the ethnology around the change in behaviour.

Why then is the launch of the new handset inhibited? Because the other stakeholders in the NFC space fear that they will become locked into a walled garden controlled by Nokia perhaps? How about the fact that the innovation required for such a service now faces a lag because too much resource is directed to the needs of Apple and Android development?

If the mobile is no more than hardware and as a User I have an expectation that just like an MP3 player I should be able to fill it with the content that I want. The launch of new technology such as NFC into the mass market needs to be Federated more. That is when Nokia launch such a phone it needs to be reported by my Bank, Carmaker and Transportation provider who all tell me that I can now use it to access their services. Lets face it no Call Centre Assistant you talk to so far would be able of facilitating the firmware upgrades needed to install new services.

Sorry I have been quite

2010-09-14T16:31:00.005+01:00

It has been some time since I have posted anything.

The reason is that I have become more and more frustrated with the fixation that the answer is the iPhone for all things that are wrong with the mobile phone market. Just as Motorola got it wrong with placing all its eggs in one basket trusting everything to Apple is flawed.

Those that ask, what about Android? Have to understand that Google is just another walled garden and it to is flawed for other reasons.

The fact that both of these handset developers see the future as about the power of the App store highlights the failure to understand the ecosystem that is the Mobile Phone Industry. Observe the clamour of Vodafone Shareholders looking for the fire sale of minority equity assets to see the bonfire of the vanities.

Google does not seem to understand the timeframes the Industry operates under.

Apple sees life in a binary format of winners and loser which risks seeing the foundations crumble under them. As a futurologist I read the tea leaves for Apple as potentially pulling out of the phone market. Recent developments with the iPad, iPod and Apple TV could all point to no iPhone6. If the App store was the answer look for the BBC News app on the OVI and ANDROID stores it will not be the same one developed by Fjord for the iPad.

Nokia have replaced the CEO as he was unable to develop a handset that would kill the iPhone. As Apple is a very small rival and the real fight is with Blackberry his focus was on the right place. Yes fire him because he did not stop the rise of RIM but not for the lack of a high end handset that fails to complement the ecosystem.

If you fail to understand the need to support the ecosystem what you face is failure of the infrastructure. If Vodafone cannot see a return on the investment for new base stations why are they going to build them?

Once Mobile Networks employed anthropologists and sociologists to understand customer needs and develop products. Now they live on Internet Time which works on open development with Darwinian evolution. Evolution is difficult when the search methodology is a top ten list rather than accurate indexation with a standard taxonomy.

This post is me letting off steam. I might come back and develop some of the observations above or I might lie in a dark room and listen to whale music.

I am not something that may be owned!

2009-09-24T20:37:00.002+01:00

Today Vodafone announced that a new service aimed at bringing together the fixed a mobile web called Vodafone 360 this is to replace Vodafone Live. The aim of the service is to gather all of a customer’s friends, communities, entertainment and personal favourites in one place.

The core of the service is a new personal address book that aims to bring together all of contacts from the mobile phone, social networks and other internet accounts. It will work across a range of handsets and synch automatically with the PC. My fear is that despite collecting contacts numerous studies show that most of us have fewer than five friends. It is this small group that we communicate the most with; so why collate a number of different lists?

Whilst I agree that the aim of Vodafone to bring the most frequently connected people closer to the front I doubt the need for a “proximity algorithm”.

The fight seems to be Vodafone against Facebook, Google and Apple for the trust of the customer. My issue is that for many they idea that they are little more than chattle is something that is unacceptable. Most consumers are anarchists in the oldest sense of the word and operate in informal social groups. Thus any attempt to control this group has as much chance of success as herding cats!

I am full of support for the adoption of LiMo based handsets and the development of a proprietary UI. But am unsure about the difference from the inq Facebook handset that won awards at this years GSMA World show in Barcelona this February.

Confussion over the Handset market

2009-08-30T19:07:00.004+01:00

I know that we are in a quite period as the holiday season starts to end with one last public holiday before the children return to school but if you take both the Observer and The Sunday Times you might be a little confused as to the progress of Android.

The Observer reports that the iPhone faces a threat, whilst the Times tells us that Google is failing in the smartphone market.

This week I have been talking to a number of clients about the OS battle that is taking place in the mobile phones space. In preparation for a workshop on Smartphones OS I decided that I would put aside my opinion formed by being a user for the last twenty plus years and get one of everything and use them for a few weeks. So I have started carrying a small gadget bag with something others than Nikons in. As well as the Nokia E71 I have a G1, Apple 3G, Blackberry Storm and I still carry my Sony Ericsson C905i.

I do not think that the mobile industry is in a battle for one single OS but rather the current EIGHT competing OS will be consolidated down to just three.

Talking with others who use Smartphones has been interesting. One current iPhone users told me that he was going to pass on an upgrade of his iPhone to the 3GS but rather he was moving to an Android handset and upgrading to Paid Google Apps so that he could work on the Cloud. Another told me that he keeps being surprised by RIM and has noticed how many women are using one to surf and network with rather than an iPhone. The Nokia users cannot see why they should jump ship and are hopeful that the divergence into Linux and Windows devices are little more than a distraction.

I have noticed that my iPhone seems to prefer WiFi to the poor O2 network when ever I want to use facebook, twitter, Yahoo, Shozu. The experience is no different from my iPod Touch and thus if I have an iPod why do I need the Phone element because I'm not using the phone network and payment is taken via my iTunes account. I am now using pictures in Twitter but is that worth the expense?

I seem to be having problems with the Android App Store and Installing software like Opera. The mail client seems good but the browser needs work. For me the mixture of touch and QWERTY keyboard is a pain. Might be a better experience on Vodafone than it is on T-Mobile but I am underwhelmed at present.

The Storm is an interesting experience. The device has attracted a lot of attention from my teenage twins who would both love to find in their bag for the new school year. The messaging is excellent especially BB to BB user and Facebook and Twitter are as good as on the iPhone.

I am starting to get the hang of the E71 and Ovi alongside Google Apps does make it a productive device. The battery life is far better than that of the other smartphones however I still find that I need to switch to Opera to work as quickly as I can with either my PC or MacBook. In switching to Opera a number of sites ask we to "use the browser installed by the phone manufacturer" what is this 1999 all over again?

When I am off out for a walk with my camera what do I put in my pocket? It is still the C905i it has a better camera and the battery does not die on me. Should I need it I have GPS and Opera takes care of the browsing.

From conversations and observation I feel that RIM and Linux will be two of the three that are left standing the other one is any ones guess. Mr Jobs has been at the phone thing for two years now and he still has not hit the target he set himself for sales outside of the US. If he were to launch the tablet / iPod Touch MAX and it was a success would he kill the iPhone? Most people I observe when I travel seem to have two mobile phones and they carry these in a bag rather than in a pocket and so a larger form factor will not be an issue providing that it is A5 in size rather than A4.

What ever handset OS wins the distribution model will have to change. Two year contracts will see handsets looking like they have been cared for by Vandals if my Twins handsets are anything to go by. One friend has changed his iPhone five times in the last year as it was starting to look used and the Apple Store guys let him. What is need is more Handset Vendor stores so that some may buy a handset and then buy connectivity separately. After all we know that the guy in Carphone Warehouse is not going to give us the best deal.

Network Coverage Issues....

2009-08-14T09:11:00.003+01:00

A few weeks ago Ofcom published maps for all five UK Operators coverage of the UK with a 3G Signal. At the time I thought that the maps were interesting but suspected that they were overstating the situation.

With the change of handset and the fact that this Summer England are playing an interesting cricket competition I have been more concerned that usual about coverage.

I have chosen to trial the Sky Sports service on my Orange Handset. In order to be able to watch mobile TV I have to be able to get a 3G signal. If all I relied on was Orange I'd have thought that England played well in Leeds last week as all that I saw was the first three overs on Friday and 15 minutes of Broad and Swan hitting the ball to all corners. The other attempts to watch whilst I was out and about were all failures because I didn't have coverage. The issue was that I was not at home where I know Orange has coverage issues but rather I was in Central London, Oxford and around the M1. The other issue is that Ofcom says that Orange has the widest coverage.

With my T-Mobile handset I find that the traffic management is an issue in the daytime the push email on my handset does not function and email is downloaded in blocks however between 20:00 and 07:00 it does work. So just what is happening to the T-Mobile Network if it is drifting in and out?

I have "free" mobile broadband from BT which uses the Vodafone network and I have to say that on my commute into London they seem to be the only people capable of providing coverage along the Metline all the way out to Hertfordshire. The dongle also seems to function well in places where I cannot find wifi. In terms of mobile broadband Vodafone is not only faster than 3 but also has a greater footprint.

Why is this an issue?

Well in an effort to get UK working better we want to use Mobile to provide coverage to those that chose to live in a rural setting that is not covered by ADSL or Fiber-optic networks in order to give speeds of 2 Meg/Second. If those inside Government are to believe the regulator or networks that they offer British Telecom a get out clause we are in for a shock.

I don't blame the Networks completely for the failure of their coverage. Some of the blame has to be accepted by NIMBY local Governments who refuse planning for new base stations. My Lib Dem controlled council as a matter of course refuse all applications and so appeals are need to grant them. The fact that we have an over supply which has seen prices collapse makes it difficult to justify the return on investment needed to cover all of the UK. However the auctions required commitment to cover the UK with a suitable service. Today that service can be seen as a hybrid network that offers a basic connection and at times a high speed one. The regulator needs to raise the speed of the basic connection.

Without a suitable network how can a provider expect me to pay for a service. Given what I have experienced over the first week of testing mobile TV I don not expect to keep it after the free period is over. In order to attempt to use my handset as a mini-computer I have to use the wifi radio. In doing so I consume power too fast for my phone to operate all day. If I am using wifi I am not mobile but rather wireless and so might as well use my iPod Touch if all I need is small screen access or my Laptop if I want a bigger view.

72Hours in what have I learnt about my Nokia?

2009-08-10T13:58:00.003+01:00

OK having spent the weekend learning about my E71 and setting it up what do I think now?

The Ovi service is still a LONG way off from being ready to roll. The first app I downloaded was hard to set up and does not seem to work and so I removed it. The second app that I want to download can't be!

I want to install ShoZu when I try and discover the app from my handset its not found. When I find it on the desktop I can't send it to the handset. Does it have anything to do with the lack of a suitable payment service to collect the £6 price? Before I add anything more I want to get ShoZu running.

Other issue is just how open is Ovi? Wanted to use Opera to navigate and once I logged in access was denied.

Opera install was a bit of a learning curve. Started off with thinking that I could run Opera Mini on my S60 handset. Downloaded and installed but didn't seem to working as well as it does on my SE so removed it and installed Opera Mini which is recommended for the E71.

Email seems to function well have six accounts set up and have them pushed to the handset. Works well when T-Mobile has coverage.

One other little gripe is compatibility with my MacBook. Stuck the CD in the drive and nothing happens! Quick look online and I see I can download software that allows Nokia and iCal to sync. Once done I have be able to get appointments and to do lists on the phone not interested in trying to copy Address Book as have copy on the iPod Touch.

At this moment I am happy with the progress of discovering S60 it's going better than when I used a N93i which was just to different to my day to day handset. If things still prove to be frustrating might have to see if some of my mates at Nokia are back from Summer Holidays and ask for a favour?

Testing Nokia

2009-08-08T13:06:00.005+01:00

Yesterday I got myself a Nokia E71 to use with my T-Mobile SIM.

Opening the box I saw a Handset form factor that I liked and despite not being a Nokia user an OS that works well. A number of things seemed easy in terms of installing the bits needed to use the phone also managed to edit contacts from my address book in the process.

Then I went over to Ovi to see what might be of interest and saw nothing. Went on the web and looked at what widgets might make Twitter, Facebook and Flickr easier to use rather than via the T-Zones portal and was again disappointed.

After 24 hours use with the handset I have email up and running for the 5 accounts that I use. Have PIM working as I would wish it to on my handset. Am looking at using Opera mini as my browser so that I can make everything work on the device as I would wish. As well as Opera I have also installed Yahoo Go 3.0 so that I can deal with Flickr and manage the SPAM flow in my personal email.

So in terms of hardware design I have a form factor that I like and a need to tweek some of the software so that the experience is a little more like that of my iPod touch rather than my Sony Ericsson C905. Do I think the E71 is a smartphone? Well at them moment it does not seem that smart. I do think that it should be a second device that means the Laptop can stay on the desk as when out and about it can offer me the functionality needed.

The camera seems to me to be something I will not be using my SE has something better and it is not often used when I have a Nikon available! The Maps function looks more interesting than the service I have tested from Orange.

The biggest issue with the E71 however is not the software or hardware it's the service provider. With T-Mobile seeking to manage costs in line with its revenues the coverage is woeful. Despite having had Planning Permission for over a year to build a new 3G mast close to my home the Local School reports no sign of construction starting. Thus I revert to using WiFi in the home, I am glad that I am on a SIM only contract which includes web n walk because if I was paying consumer contract rates I might have to start stalking the new MD.

I know that all Networks have an issue with coverage in my location and so accept blackspots but in the last year T-Mobile seem to have discovered deadzones! I would hope that investment can be made into femtocells so that the coverage issue can be resolved. WiFi is not the solution because of battery consumption. If we are to replace voice spend with data services first off we need coverage.

All that is wrong with the US view of mobile

2009-07-12T10:01:00.004+01:00

Have read Scoble's post on the problem with Europe's mobile scene and raised my blood pressure to a level that has caused me to post.

Here in Europe we have a number of advantages over the Americans. First we have Networks that they can only dream of in terms of coverage and speed so should the user wish to they can adopt mobile data services. We have thus decided that using a laptop with mobile broadband is a better way to surf than a smartphone.

In terms of innovation we have leadership in LTE, Handsets and Network Ownership. We are looking at how voice can be improved.

Whilst the US feels that it invented the Mobile and now once again owns the space it is not about just one device. Last year more people bought a single Nokia handset than all the smartphones sold in the world. Mobile payments in the form of micropayments for content and services in Europe is far more than Apple has made from the Ap Store.

Looking at the history of mobile data services it is far from certain that the Ap Store is going to become a cornerstone of all things mobile. One thing that Europe is better than the US at is regulation and the exclusive nature of the iPhone is something that the EU will regulate against; just ask Microsoft and Intel if you are unsure. Without regulation what is to say that the Ap Store is another AvantGo? At the hight of the dot.com bubble everyone thought that the web clipping service was the future and now it is little used.

Before we had smartphones we had PDA and everyone was using either an iPaq or Palm a few geeks preferred PSION devices, all these used bluetooth to connect to a mobile and use it as a modem. Now these devices are museum pieces.

In four years time will Apple still be in the mobile phone market or would it have moved on? At this moment in time we have seen three devices in 2 years ALL of which have the same form factor. As a historian of mobile it looks all too much like Motorola with the StarTAC and Razr rather than RIM who have transitioned from a single device to multiple form factors or Nokia with ranges that have global appeal.

We have to remember that the primary function of mobile is a phone rather than internet device. A number of networks are looking at new generation Voice services which will stop downward pricing of the product unlike the fixed world. For the last four years mobile has carried more voice than fixed and for the last eight it has generated more revenues. Having lost out on the fixed revenue stream the Networks are not going to do the same again if they are to continue investment in 4G.

Lets just remember that mobile is just that and all to often we find users of smartphones static. How many times have you bumped into someone walking off a plane as they adopt the Blackberry Prayer to read their phone and though is it that important?

Thoughts on BT

2009-05-15T16:39:00.004+01:00

So Yesterday we had the presentation of the BT results for the last year and the headline analysis can be read on the FT, BBC, Independent and Times amongst other sources.

What gets me is that Ian Livingstone has used accounting tricks to hide what the future looks like. Lookig at BT Retail the core revenue streams are ALL declining and yet the Division managed to increase its profit. Going forward if my own experience is common they will lose even more money, the retention costs for me staying on the BT network are more than the money I am paying them the poor user experience means that I have stopped using BT Vision on demand services.

The Cost Cutting plan is a recruitment freeze rather than intelligent restructuring of the Workforce. This is because of the fact that we are looking at the heavy unionisation of the Openreach division which could become a car crash similar to Global Services (Talk Talk and Tiscali merging will lower the number of truck roles for LLU). If the cost base in GS is wrong why has so little been written down on the Balance Sheet and why are we not seeing large scale redundancies in India of BT staff?

However the big issue I have with Livingstone is the lack of a Vision when it comes to the future. In the middle of the Digital Britain review would his predecessor have stayed quite or used the annual results as an opportunity to talk up high speed broadband? With BT needing to become a software company if the investment in 21CN is to be profitable what progress is being made and how will BT be at the centre of new services?

Could the emphasis on fixing the pension fund be because Livingstone and his Board what a nest to rival that of the former RBS Executives under Fred Godwin?

1 Billion Apps, can someone help Apple with it's counting....

2009-04-29T09:39:00.003+01:00

OK so in 9 months customers of Apple have downloaded 1 Billion Applications for the iPhone AND iPod Touch.

I look upon this not as a demonstration of the market for mobile data services but rather the demand for personalisation. As before with people buying ringtones and wallpaper owners of mass market consumer electronics wish to make them unique.

I am not an iPhone user but I am someone with a Touch. I have 20 applications that I use on my iPod and have removed 6 that didn't work. The average for each of my applications is 4 updates since I have installed them. Does Apple count these as 26 Apps or 90 something?

I understand that Game Theory is deployed by the Vendor of an App to keep it in the charts thus I expect that we are looking at Double Counting.

As a Touch user I can only connect via WiFi but as someone who works in an environment that such services is ubiquitous connectivity other than when in Transit is good. How many iPhone users are also doing so over WiFi rather than 2G/3G mobile? Thus the next time that someone tells me that Mobile Data is mainstream can they at first demonstrate that what they are doing is possible on a handset that is not Smart?

The next few months will be interesting in that the economic downturn means that the old subsidy model is over and so will smartphone numbers grow if the consumer has to pay up front for the handset? Without a Smartphone what of the market for Apps?

When I can get Opera on my Touch I will consider that Apple is Open and Mobile Data is more than niche.

So Just what are you developing for the App Store?

2009-03-11T08:07:00.004Z

Terence Eden's presentation at MoMo London was interesting for the fact that he highlighted that the biggest selling handset in Europe last year was a Nokia 6300 and Globally it was also a Nokia 1100. Neither of the handsets are Smartphones however they are purchased by Networks to give to subscribers these handsets when compared to a Smartphone are positively basic.

Given that fact what should you be developing? Perhaps we need to look at using the assets of the Mobile Network to overcome the lack of power in the handset? Alternatively we could look at services rather than applications and look at partnering with Transit Systems and Banks to introduce ticketing and payment solutions?

What is going to stop you is the fact that success requires those within the Mobile industry to understand that it is an ecosystem. When we have an ecosystem then we can operate as a federation with a Thought Leader shaping requirements then Networks and Service Providers publishing Application Profile Interfaces that will open platforms to as many as possible. Whilst for those of us in the Mobile Industry this might seem a utopian dream and to Regulators sound lie a classic cartel, it has been done in the US with Mobile Banking.

A review of Mobile Banking in America will show that the Banks have invested millions in advertising the service in mainstream media, three of the four Networks have opened up there platforms. The result is that one in five phone owners have done some form of mobile banking in the last year. Over 200 companies have developed solutions for Banks. Wells Fargo has 28 different Mobile Banking solutions that range from simple text to complex java for Blackberry and iPhone. The usage of Mobile Banking is feed back to help understand the progression from simple transactions to peer-to-peer payments.

Having seen the Sandboxes set up by European Mobile Networks and Handset Vendors I fear that what is on offer is a range of islands rather than walled gardens. The problem is that the water between each island could be cold and have strong currents and the maps to navigate between them look like some from the dark ages rather than GPS satellite renderings.

Should I want to be a developer I would seek access to the HLR, I would want detailed APIs and microsegmention of the customer base with trends recorded over the last four to six quarters. I would want to be able to offer firmware updates to customers so that the handset is capable of operating at its optimum.

This is where the problem of any App Store makes them likely to fail. The Mobile Networks thanks to fragmentation in the legacy systems do not have the information I need and so any application launched is little more than a live experiment. If you own a Mobile Network and you want to use the intellect of others to service your Customers needs can you please invest in a Service Delivery Platform that covers the whole of your base and publish all of your Interfaces?

Economist view on MWC09

2009-03-09T08:46:00.004Z

This weeks Economist has a review of the transformation of the mobile industry following Mobile World Congress. It points out the unlike other industries at present Mobile is in good health in terms of sales.

In telling us that we are at in inflection point with the transition of handsets into smartphones. Whilst this sector has grown over the last few years to be a key element I do not see that many consumers are looking for a single device. Talking to my daughters about what "upgrade" they want it is not about an iPhone or Blackberry for these teenagers but rather an exceptional camera that will also playback MP3s. Many have two handsets and whilst the Smartphone is the device that they are happy to show in public the "other" handset is the one that does most of the phone calls.

As the economy starts to slow further we will see Network Operators look more at the dead money spent on Subscriber Acquisition/Retention Costs. Why would a Network give out a £250+ handset if it is used as a second device and so the usage is lower than expected?

As money starts to be counted by the Consumer will we see Contracts downsized the current bundles are perceived as over priced rather than good value. This being the case we are seeing more PAYG sims becoming dormant whilst contract numbers stay strong thanks to the introduction of SIM only. The risk is that the Networks will become more intelligent and will take the opportunity to "lose" subscribers that are not profitable.

A presentation last year from NSN showed that on a number of European Networks over 60% of the subscribers were loss making. Will this downturn mean that the Operators with the best processes take the opportunity to decide that they do not seek to be mass market but rather premium supplier? If they decide that this is the best source of action then they could look at the PC market and say that the approach of Apple & Sony is far better than Dell & HP.

Photo is the Nokia E75 taken by me at MWC09.

The Rise of the App Store

2009-02-25T09:01:00.003Z

Over the last three months more and more of those that I have met who are new to Mobile say that they have joined because the industry has gone "Open". They tell me that the App Store shows that the walled garden of the operators has finally been broken.

As someone who has been in the industry for over twenty years I have to inform then that the assumptions that they are working on are wrong. We have seen all this before. Not very long ago O2 had its Source developer community, they gave access to the O2 labs and test equipment for developers to use. Companies big and small whent to Ealing or Marlow to show that they had just the application that was going to monitise the mobile web. I did not see one single company that made money from the relationship. O2 started charging developers for access to the lab and then SourceO2 stopped.

Vodafone, T-Mobile and Orange all had Partner programs that were aimed at launching applications to the consumer all of these have been scaled back.

This week we have news from America that the App Store might be a bubble in that those who download do not use many Apps. This matters if your business model is ad supported. The Apple App Store needs to learn from the Palm developers, I will believe that it is open when I can download Opera for my iTouch o replace the iCal with something more suitable.

I do not see the use of App stores as something that will improve the user experience. I have persisted in try to make the Yahoo!Go service work on a number of handsets. On my latest Sony Ericsson it no longer connects to the server and so cannot update, it did for a while then it stopped. On my HTC Touch Plus the application works once in every five attempts! These two handsets are on different networks, I think the issue is that the network api has changes on my Orange handset, it might be an issue with memory on the handset with T-Mobile the issue is with the Radio Network I think. Poor quality of service means that regardless of excellent design an App will become unloved and unused.

What about the other handset vendors?

2009-02-17T16:49:00.005Z

Samsung OMNIA HD

LG Watch Phone

Sony Ericsson Idou

Having considered my opinion overnight and today taken a second walk around the stands I wish to say that in a time when the consumer is expected to part fund the handset upfront the rivals to Nokia do not seem to have taken up the challenge.

The Sony Ericsson stand this year did not have the excitement of last, the "new" handset on show was a Symbian S60 concept device. When when demonstrated came with more caveats than the new Facebook TOS. What we saw was excellent however after the failure of the Xeperia what hope for this device? The key display was the accessories that you can now get for your Cybershot or Walkman handset rather than new handsets. Perhaps SE should have made its redundancies in a more effective manner and kept most of the product developers on? Its showing in Barcelona says that after three good years the company may now face a downward move that might be difficult to arrest.

Samsung were showing off their latest smartphone with OLED screen and Samsung's own OS. The industrial design and display on the device is a delight the fact that it is running Samsung's software rather than Symbian or Windows Mobile is I think a mistake. A survey amongst those I know that have had a Samsung reveals that most hate the menus and software to a level that means they would not recommend the Brand to anyone or get a replacement Samsung. The Company has relationships with both Nokia and Microsoft so why not accept the extra cost and buy the software from them?

LG had a stand that was interesting in that it held both the Prada branded devices and their own handsets. The cabinet that had the largest crowd was the one with the watch phones. Talking to gadget fans all were once again returned to childhood and wanted a device so that to could be a special agent. The shrinking of handset into a simple device that does just voice and text has to be the ultimate second device for all those with an iPhone to complain of its poor performance as a phone.

The Motorola offering when it comes to handsets is best left unsaid lets say that it was only on my third trip the their stand that I saw the handsets.

ZTE was interesting in that they have a range of handsets that in terms of form factor look like those that we see here in Europe. However they are running Linux and operate on the CDMA network. They did seem to be busy talking with potential customers from the emerging markets as well as those in the west looking for low cost mobile broadband dongles.

Android had a busy stand next to Microsoft's in Hall 1 but whilst Google had booked a meeting room they like Apple seem to have taken the decision that business is best done away from the public eye.

The strangest demonstration over the last two days of a handset was of the Palm Pre. The Palm employee kept to his script better than a soap opera star showing the Pebble like industrial design and the off screen gesture technology The ability to source contact email and calendar data from multiple sources was interesting the demonstration however was let down by the lack of information as to the build for GSM networks or the exact chipsets to be used in the production models.

For Nokia its all about E...

2009-02-16T17:48:00.004Z

Today Nokia presented to the world two new E-Series handsets the E55 which aims to offer a low cost version of the E71 (which has shipped 10M units in the six months that it has been available) and the E75 (top). Both of these devices are about giving email to as many people as possible at the lowest cost. In the remarks from the head of handsets and the CEO of Nokia the primary attack was on Blackberry who they accused of charging an email tax. As a side line that went for Apple saying that "without a diverse handset range you walked on a knife edge if you had just one product".

The E75 is said to have the best battery life of ANY handset in the Nokia range with 100 Hours claimed on stand by. The E55 is thinner than the current E71 because it has a micro QWERTY keypad which will help alot of those without a PC use e-mail to make this easy they have launched OVIMAIL for those who at present do not have a Gmail account.

For Nokia the E is not just about a Series of handsets but also about EFFICIENCY making work not a place you go but something that you do regardless of place. It is also about getting Networks to ship its product in the region of 1M units a day something it is falling short on at this moment.

Where are the crowds?

2009-02-16T17:27:00.004Z

So the first day of Mobile World Congress is over and the two photos show that this year the show is slower than in the past. Taken from the first floor of the Nokia stand at 11:00 where last year we would have seen a cloud to match that of a Milan derby this year it looks like Bolton v Portsmouth.

The second photo shows the main meeting zone at noon.

Talking to some who are working for vendors at the show and they talk about having to work on the stand as headcount has been cut to less than half of what we saw in 2008.

Whilst I like the extra room I have to ask if it is good business for the organisers. Effectively the show is paid for by the Vendors who hope to meet customers from the networks. If the Networks are not sending the staff then the Vendors will have to ask if the investment is worth it.

Talking to one small company I discovered that they were spending €200K on attending MWC. They will need to see €2M worth of sales to say that the trip was worthwhile. This just goes to show that in these financial times some parties have to come to an end and hard cash needs to work.

Waiting for the show to start

2009-02-16T07:57:00.003Z

Left with plenty of time to get through the hords of people for the start of MWC09 only to discover no que.

Walking to my first meeting and I see that the number of of adverts inside the show ground are less and smaller than last year.

This is going to be an interesting few days and first impressions are that we are on for a scaled down event. The vib does not seem to be the same as with any of the others that I have attended in Barcelona.

Guess that Six Sigma does not work

2009-02-14T11:07:00.004Z

BusinessWeek wrote a feature on how Motorola blew it after their results.

Motorola when I worked for it was at the centre of the Mobile Industry with business units that sold airtime, built infrastructure and made handsets. At the birth of the mobile industry they had a position that none could rival.

Before the phenomenal success of the Razr they had similar control of the handset market with the StarTAC (which was the last Motorola handset that I owned). The problem with ALL handsets from Motorola was that whilst they looked good and had great reception compared to other handsets it all went wrong when you turned them on. Despite comments from Customers and Consumers Motorola decided that it new best when it came to user interface and so at a time when others were making handsets that did not require an Instruction Manual they persisted with a solution that required a Personal Tutor!

Motorola were excellent at helping emerging markets build mobile infrastructure and were one of the first to take minority stakes in Operators. This fact meant that they were prepared to transfer engineering skills in a way that others did not. However the role played on the War on Terror has limited the growth of Motorola in these markets. It is difficult to mount an effective marketing campaign when the TV News has US Military with the Motorola Logo on their helmets, all the product placement that you have on US TV is pointless.

The growth of Mobile Networks means that the airtime business is no longer viable and Motorola exited the industry after the internet bubble.

The collapse of the integrated model means that the management of Motorola stopped having the data necessary to make decisions from their internal systems. This failure was compounded as Motorola retrenched to the US and so was developing solutions for just one customer base rater than being a true Multinational. When I was leaving Motorola they were promoting Six Sigma as the management tool on which to run the company. I guess even if you have reduce the error rate down to just 1 in a Million if that mistake happens to be at the very top of the decision tree then it is fatale.

Motorola is in a deathspin, regardless of the quality of the executive management and the breadth of contacts it has stopped looking to Europe as a customer base. The only debate is how long will it take to die? Its interaction with Apple proves that the Engineering focus is still core to Motorola and so it is unlikely to find salvation in Android. Cut off half the headcount is not about growth but rather the preservation of cash and so with Mobile World Congress approaching I expect to see long faces from those still carrying Motorola business cards and from the alumni shaking heads about the fall of a giant.

Photo comes from Science Museum in the UK

And end of the gravy train?

2009-02-12T16:16:00.004Z

Once again I am entitled to a handset upgrade from T-Mobile having had my smartphone for the last 12 months.

Last year when I did upgrade to the HTC Touch I also had my tariff reduced to reflect that fact that this contract is for my second handset. For the last year I have not utilised the voice or text bundle included in my tariff but have used the web'n'walk data plan to keep up to date on email.

This year T-Mobile have reduce the handset subsidy dependent spend and length of contract, even with an 18 month wait for my next gadget the handset would require me to pay something towards the handset. Over the 16 years that I have been a customer of 0ne-2-one/T-Mobile I have never paid anything towards the handset. So having been asked to make a contribution to the costs for the first time are T-Mobile saying that I lose money for them and so they want me to leave? They must understand that I am unlikely to recommend then to family and friends and so as a plan this is not the same as a local restaurant switch to BYOB rather than renewing their alcohol license!

As someone who works in pricing mobile services I fully understand that handset subsidies only work when the subscriber uses the network. The pay it forward method is broken if the consumer does not utilise the service because the handset is the second device and so the consumer in wanting up to date technology should make a contribution the the hardware.

The question for me as a consumer is should I wait until the unit cost of the handset drops to a level that means T-Mobile will give it to me or pay for the gratification of using the latest technology? I know that as a customer of T-Mobile UK the technology is not that up to date and so the joy of a new gadget is limited.

I think that I will see if I can blag a new handset from one of my contacts at next weeks Mobile World Congress and witch to SIM only as the limited coverage of T-Mobile where I live and work means that it will always be my second line. The current upgrade strategy must place churn high of the customer actions.

Expectations for MWC09

2009-02-11T10:37:00.003Z

So next week we have the global event that is Mobile World Congress in Barcelona my daughters asked what happens. Over the next hour I tried to explain that far from a holiday the week in Barcelona will be hard work with a number of meetings.

Starting from Sunday afternoon through to Wednesday night I will meet with 37 different Organisations who want to talk about Mobile Banking, Next Generation Networks and Voice services. I will not be sitting in one place entertaining visitors but rather I will be walking from one meeting to the next. The good news is that I will be well exercised.

Talking with others in the Mobile industry some are giving Barcelona a pass this year stating budget and time issues so hopefully it will be less crowded. The flow of press releases so far talk about Mobile Broadband, WiMAX deployment in Emerging Markets and Handset manufacturers offering Application Stores. Party invites are thin on the ground compared with previous years and journalists are talking about the lack of sponsorship so it might be that a touch of realism has set in.

With 4 Billion users of Mobile the industry is indeed larger than any predicted 10 years ago. However the development of Smartphones and Mobile Broadband seem to have lead many down a blind alley. If Networks are to invest in greater speed and bandwidth why should that network be Open? If Networks want to turn infrastructure into low cost access points why would Equipment manufacturers innovate? I am always interested in how others use Mobile when I travel and hope that a trip to Spain might act as a wake up call for those in Northern Europe who see Smart as the future. With Networks having to fight to keep customers the investment has to be made not in new gadgets but rather processes.

I will be posting next week but I hope that MWC09 will not be a disappointment I am hoping that we might see the start of an ecosystem that sees everyone trying to evolve mobile.

Digital Britain Report

2009-02-03T16:28:00.003Z

When it was finally published my review of the Digital Britain report was I hope that they did not pay Lord Carter for this.

After two days when my fellow teleworks have overloaded my Internet connection I have to say that Carter has wasted an opportunity. Because of the lack of investment in the Thatcher years we in Britain find ourselves in a void. If we had invested rather than Privatised our utilities then we might not be looking at an infrastructure that is failing.

With the Mobile Networks it is not a question of funding capital projects on the whole but rather the need for planning permission. Given rights to build a base station anywhere that they can rent or buy a site then the Networks will build the coverage that the customers will pay for. The release of sites could speed the consolidation of Networks in the UK; it has to be obvious that we cannot support FIVE networks.

At the time of the Internet Bubble I looked at the way that Railroads and Airlines had developed over the previous 100 years. All those that built the Railroads ended up in failure and those that started Air Travel also ended in financial ruin PanAm was the last to fail. However we still used trains and planes.

Looking at the demands of UK plc what we see is a need for better infrastructure. The launch of Cable television shows that we cannot offer regional monopolies rather we need a single wholesale provider. However the lack of a government CTO who understands the engineering requirements of Broadband Britain we do not have a Blind Watchmaker capable of architecting an effective solution.

At this moment we have an opportunity not presented since the end of the World War in 1950's Britain. If we are to limit the market correction then we need to invest in infrastructure that allows the UK economy be remain the the G8. The roll out of fiber to finally provide high speed broadband connectivity will give the UK employment in the Civil Engineering sector at a time when the only thing we seem to be building is Sports facilities for the 2012 Games. We will also provide employment opportunities to raise the level of Engineering Skills in the work force. Before Thatcher we had pride in Engineers but the transfer to a service economy means that it is no longer so. With better Engineering in the communications field we could raise the standard in the UK that makes people employment opportunities not currently provided following the downsizing of BT and the fall of Marconi.

Looking at the people in the street I have to ask that does the man in the street want Broadband? Whist some could afford a high speed computer that could benefit from 100 Megabits per second connectivity those who limit their experience to light social networking, messaging and catch up TV could function with a connection that is a little better than the current situation.

It is not the consumer that needs better Broadband rather it is business and government that does as without it the UK will demonstrate that we continue to fall back. With better connectivity we can lift educational standards not just those that are currently in school but also within the workforce.

The last two days has seen an increase in Mobile traffic as well internet traffic but the benefits in terms of revenue has only highlighted the need for investment. Looking at the response to the report I am surprised that not many are disappointed that Carter has been conservative in his recommendations.

Innovation in Mobile .....

2009-01-28T20:05:00.005Z

...if the things outlined in the Independent today are the best that the mobile industry can come up with can you stop the Bus I want to get off!

Whilst I agree that the Mobile is becoming more and more a Remote for life I would hope that the Executives within the Networks at this time are focusing on the Quality of the Service rather than the Technology and User Interface. In talking to the Normal User one of the biggest demands they have with the new handsets is that the battery lasts just like it did the that Black & White Nokia that we only charged on a Sunday. Once they realise that using data services resulted in no phone after lunch they stop using data!

Talking to those who are excellent in segmentation and targeted marketing speak about just how bad the Networks are at Communicating. For Example, If I have been a contract customers with your network for 8 years and every time I have upgraded my handset I have selected a Nokia what makes you thing that you can sell me a Samsung? Tesco's know that if I am a Pepsi drinker I will not switch to Coke so they incentivise me to buy expensive cans rather than cheap bottles. When then don't the Networks use some of the data locked in the billing system about me to try and increase my user behaviour rather than get me to try something new?

Most people feel that the Customer Service Experience when it comes to a Mobile Network is something a kin to an Estate Agent or Dentist rather than Rolls Royce. Orange last year told those in the UK that it understood their pain and would move call centres back to the UK. As an Orange consumer I see no improvement to my care, since they have become French I no longer get calls to ask what can be done to improve my experience or reduce my bill.

As a consumer I have FIVE UK sims for my personal use and we have three others in the house that Orange know about as they are topped up from my Contract. Orange know about on half of the Sims I own, they have not attempted to cross sell Broadband (Fixed or Mobile). Thus I have to question what value they place on me as a customer?

The reason that I do not use a Single Network is because the Coverage I have at present is erratic at best. It is not a question of budget to build in the case of the Provider but rather planning permission to build new cell sites. Having been involved in Fixed Mobile Convergence I know that using GSM & WiFi = Reduced Battery Life so I want a system that is GSM. I also know that the audio quality of the GSM network could be enhanced and for someone who is a heavy voice user that is an innovation that would increase useage.

If you are interested in a Universal Remote Control rather than download apps from the iStore onto you iPhone switch to a RIM and sign up for Unify4life.

Carnival of the Mobilists No 158

2009-01-26T15:26:00.002Z

Radvision has edited the best posts on Mobile this week for the Carnival of the Mobilists.

Go over and take a look at Mobile Content, User Interfaces, Mobile Futures and Nokia v Apple.

Just who needs Broadband?

2009-01-25T15:53:00.005Z

The Sunday Times today reports that the Mobile Operators are to be offered the 3G spectrum in perpetuity in exchange for the provision of a universal service which could cost an additional £1-2B to build. In the Observer we are told that BT is looking at a return to mobile becasue of the loss of revenue having spun out Cellnet to help pay off a £30B debt at the time of the 3G auctions.

As someone who was involved in the 3G bids I have to question some of the logic in these reports. On a very simple level if I were the CEO of a Network in the UK the thing I want is planning permission for all the base stations they have planned. The Investment needed for 3G has been slowed because of local resistance to new base stations not cash concerns. In the Local Elections last year the Liberal Democrats had as a manafesto pledge the refusal to allow any new masts to be built. The outcome of this is that Networks need to Appeal Planning Applications to get one built, this is at present taking some 4 years to achieve! For me it means that I have very poor coverage from Orange which will only improve once they get permission to improve coverage not a Governement incentive.

3G spectrum might not be something that has a long time frame in that the current thoughs on 4G is that the old 2G spectrum is refarmed in an effort to improve inbuilding coverage.

Lord Carter (one of Mandleson's Business Ministers) is at present putting the finishing touches to his Digital Britain Report aimed at looking at the needs for UK PLC. It seems that at this moment the Mandleson Machine is stress testing some of the recommendations prior to publication. As well as the 3G "leak" we have the Observer reporting that the central plank of the plan, Fibre to the Home is under threat. BT is looking at the best way to manage its cash knowing that they have a hole in the pension funds and declining incomes thanks to bundles that offer free calls and problems in the Services business.

Whilst I have been looking forward to a better connection than I have at present I am unsure of the benefits of just building FTTH. When you look at the expansion of the M25 you see that the adding of more lanes just means that more are stuck in traffic jams! Thus with a faster internet will we get a better one? The TV content that I want is not yet available on iPlayer and the regulator has said that Picnic or Kangeroo are not fair to sonsumers and so cannot launch. So it best solution for me to wait until the serries finishes and the buy the DVD at HMV if I wish to remain legal or risk viruses and file share. The Government seems to think that because so many are breaking the rules they need to Tax all users of the web. If you get a better connection the incetive will be to break the rules more so who wins?

A New Dawn or the beginning of The End for Nokia?

2009-01-23T08:50:00.003Z

This week we have seen the presentation of results for Nokia and Apple which in headline terms present a change in the fortunes of the leader and a significant challenge at the high end of the market.

In his presentation Ollli-Pekka Kallasvuo Chief Executive of Nokia said “In recent weeks the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated rapidly, with even weaker consumer confidence, unprecedented currency volatility and credit tightness continuing to impact the mobile communications industry. ”

Apples results show that it sold 13.7m devices in 2008 which is about 1-1.5% of the total worldwide market by volume. The last quarter saw only 4.4m sold rather than the 5m the market estimated. The key comment made in the Earning Call was that the iPhone performs poorly in non-subsidised markets, indicates that at some point when demand evens out carriers will have more power over the price they pay Apple for the handset.

With 40% of the handset market and the Integrated model rather than contract manufacturing Nokia has better Economies of scale than its rivals. Apple is a design house that gets its handset made by Hon Hi as a contract manufacturer. When you are making Phones in small volumes doing so in someone-else's factory makes sense however is it something that works when you have more than one design and 10% of the market?

Whilst some see the entry of Apple and Google into the handset market as the opening of the ecosystem thanks to the application platforms that they present I have to ask if the economics work? The Network Operators have made investments in infrastructure, distribution and support over the last 20 years. Why would they not expect some return on that investment and security over the future customer revenues?

Looking at the history of Mobile I recall that Nokia assumed that with the arrival of Data services in the late 1990's it presented a chance to take control of the consumer with the launch of Club Nokia as the primary Wap bookmark. The result was a boycott by the networks until they localised devices for each Operator.

Talking to those who work in FMCG I am told that advertising is not about getting someone to switch from Coke to Pepsi but rather to get them to increase the volumes they consume. The same is true with Handsets most people say that they are a Nokia user, Sony Ericsson person, Blackberry Addict rather than Orange customer, Vodafone Fan, O2 Punter. This Brand loyalty makes it difficult for new entrants to capture market share the rise of Blackberry and HTC has taken 10 years to achieve.

The presentations at Barcelona next month will be interesting in that we in Europe will get to see the new Palm Pre and perhaps the first Android based handsets from Motorola as well as new handsets from all those in the mainstream. I hope that we will get to see the first devices that use the Snap Dragon chip which could offer features better than the current smartphones with hopefully better battery life.

Nokia will innovate devices in the economic downturn. The conditions hopefully will mean that they cut a number of handsets from the product range in an effort to improve the user experience and quality of the offering. In light of the downturn will Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson be able to do the same? If they fail to then they will be the ones who lose out to the New Entrants. Before I see Apple as anything other than an opportunist they will need to offer a range of handsets similar to their iPod or Laptops.

Consumer Choice?

2009-01-21T10:34:00.003Z

With the fall of both Zavvi and Woolworths over the last months the UK consumer of music suffers even more than at any time since I have been buying it.

I have no wish to have my listening dictated by the whim of a PR agent for the record companies. The fact that the Christmas Number 1 has become the anointment of the X-Factor winner rather than a competition is only the tip of an iceberg. The New Comers List for 2009 whist showcasing talent does not tell the whole story it is the will of the record labels who wish to launch the next Duffy, Kylie et al whilst promoting artists like Coldplay, Lily Allen etc..

I listen to Jazz mainly the artist that are available on iTunes are limited in terms of range and quality. My local Zavvi whilst not a large stockiest of Jazz benefited from the fact that at times you could meet Courtney Pine as it was his local music shop. I have managed to get the last three CDs he has released signed because of that fact.

This week I wanted to get a couple of CDs that were not yet available for download. With only HMV as a specialist I was unlucky, WHSmith have yet to grasp the opportunity presented by the fall of rivals and Tesco stock just the top 50. One CD was available as an import from Amazon at £16 the other you buy from the Artist's Website where an EP costs £12. So much for consumer choice.

Perhaps those that set up DarkerThanBlue can find some funding and relaunch the site as a music hub? I know that the important element of Woolworths failure was the removal of Entertainment UK who undertook the distribution of Music Games and Books and it is this decline that has hit consumers most.

How are others managing to get music outside of the Cities? I hope that as small bookshops have been able to survive after the Net Book Agreement was removed we might see new music stores open.

Since Christmas I have taken advantage of the chain of Oxfam shops close to clients to replace a number of old music that I have on Tape with cheap CDs. However not many of those that give music to Oxfam listen to Jazz. Before the rise of eBay we had local CD Warehouse that served the needs of those looking to buy and sell second hand CDs. The company went bust but now it could return if others see the opportunity.

Anyone doing Mobile Banking in the UK?

2009-01-19T19:40:00.003Z

Mobilink have released its latest analysis of its customer base. It says that the service is used by young families and new home owners. So I guess that at the moment this is a service for the person concerned about budgets rather than someone looking to replace cheques to make P-2-P payments.

I talk to quite a few people about mobile usage and whilst I have been told about M-Banking by those from Pakistan, South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda and America no one in the UK other than people working in the Banking Payments community have used Mobilink. Thus I have to question the validity of the report.

Since 2005 I have been evangelising Mobile Banking, it is a service that I am confident will happen on all phones. The technology is simple in that text based, browser based and Java solutions are available dependent on the type of handset and transaction you are attempting. On a simple level once people replace bank details with a mobile number it will be easy to transfer funds by text rather than write a cheque, with a small fee more and more will also pay by phone rather than use small value notes and coins.

With the Banks looking at the cost base as well as their capitaisation I feel that they will seek to become more local and less international. Using the mobile phone rather than Internet Banking will be a technology that the consumer adopts, too many of us share a computer but very few share a phone and so it is more secure and we almost always carry a phone whilst most of us have a static computer (even if it is a laptop).

Carnival of the Mobilists

2009-01-19T09:30:00.002Z

MJelly has hosted the Carnival this week and has a number of excellent pots from those in the Mobile Ecosystem talking about what matters most to them.

Looks like my evening will be spent condensing a number of the other posts that made it into this weeks post.

Mobile Zeitgeist

2009-01-12T14:13:00.003Z

Sitting and thinking over the Christmas Holidays I took the opportunity to consider the state of the Mobile Industry. Following my post asking for a Leader to step forward and create an Ecosystem that benefits all a few asked the question was Mobile a single entity or was it a number of Industries?

Whilst I agree that at present what we see might be more a kin to a medieval Britain in that what is seen are a number of waring fiefdoms I have to say that after some twenty years we might be reaching a degree of maturity that sees those that run Networks, Handset Vendors, Chip Makers, Equipment Manufactures and Regulators starting to take a rounded view that looks at the relationships between all that makes up the Mobile Industry. As we enter difficult economic times to maintain the present position let alone move forward Leaders and Managers understand that it will require cooperation as well as innovation if mobile is to maintain its historic share of the wallet.

On a simple level I look at the talent in the industry and ask is the average IQ of those working in Mobile rising, falling or about the same as it was at the start of 2006? Are those that are joining Mobile brighter than those that we coming into mobile in 2000 or below the standard of those joining in 2002? At present I have to say that those I see starting a career in Mobile are not as smart as they were ten years ago when it was an exciting place. A lot of those that joined Mobile at the time of the 3G auctions have moved onto the next hot trend, which might be philanthropic commerce in Africa and South East Asia judging by the updates of friends on LinkedIn! One of the issues that I have with those that have joined the sector is that they do not seem to have the drive that the previous entrants had to understand the history of Mobile so that can avoid the errors of the pioneers. It might be a function of becoming Middle Aged but the current Youth do not seem to want to undertake any form of education but rather seek training so that they can perform the day to day duties of their role.

A review of the Networks sees that in Mature markets size is a good thing as consolidation sees those operating national networks seeking to become more International to share infrastructure in what looks like an old fashioned arms race. The race seems to be one of speed as capacity fills they are looking at merging towers. With an eye on costs all CEOs are looking at what can be undertaken to maintain profits are revenues fall. Rationalisation in the sales channel means that no longer are the Networks prepared to speed money on acquisition but rather wish to reward loyalty. The Brave CEO whilst cutting cost will also invest in CRM tools that improve knowledge. In the Emerging Market the CEO is faced with far greater challenges in that most of his customers have a limited budget that sees them using his network for less that 6 days a month. The interesting thing is that the Emerging Market CEO is far more attuned to his customers needs and incentivised to insure that they have network coverage and customer service.

There is no dought that at present it is the Handset guys who are feeling the downturn the most. The interesting element seems to be that the activity is speeding the end of life for a number of 2G handsets rather than the stalling of development. In a recent presentation I talked about the move towards a number of standard Operating Systems in an effort to limit the cost and time of introducing handsets onto a network (just look at the pain RIM are feeling with the launch of Bold). I see that we will have one form of Symbian (Nokia S60), LiMo and one from Windows Mobile, RIM, Apple. Symbian’s new business model has seen the death of UIQ and the new license agreement means that Nokia have no reason to cut down is premium software stack to save money. Whilst Android looks like a better opportunity than developing for Apple it is still a closed system that has the Networks concerned that Google is more an Enemy than a Friend. I am sure that by the end of 2009 we will see more devices available on the Android platform than iPhones but cost might be an issue should the networks decide not to subsidise the cost of those handset.

In the Chip business it is the lag with the handset makers that will effect most and the question is who is prepared to maintain Engineers in the current market? Those that offer simple solutions such as CSR will be the most effected and survival will mean that they need to find a bigger firm to buy them. Those that produce chips for industries other than mobile will find themselves squeezed as costs do not match revenues. All these facts mean good news for Qualcomm and I think that more will license the ARM Instruction set and develop chips capable of matching the speed and capacity available in today’s mobile network.

Equipment Makers face an interesting year with 3G spectrum auctioned in India and China offering the opportunity and threat. The staged roll out of Mobile Broadband offers opportunity to sell volume but with a limited margins. The risk for Equipment Makers is that the Networks scale back the roll out of HSUPA and HSDP+ as revenues fail to kick in. Looking at the future, this year we will see LTE finalise. Losers are likely to be Nortel, Motorola and Alcatel Lucent who bet too much on WiMAX. Ericsson and NSN will suffer as the Chinese buy market share. Huawei will continue to impress the Networks with the quality and speed of its Engineers.

At this moment I do not think that the Industry is in terminal decline, but it is getting smaller. I would like to believe that those in charge of the various stakeholders have the knowledge to insure that the decline is limited in terms of time and effect. Looking at the progress in America over the last year the launch of mobile banking shows that a federated approach benefits everyone.

Cometh the hour cometh the man.

2008-12-19T09:48:00.003Z

Sitting to write my Predictions for 2009 for clients and I am struck by how disjointed the Mobile Industry is. Over the last year I have heard to oftan from Senior Executives the phrases "Bypass the Networks to get to the Consumer" and "X are Parasites after our Customers for free". To me this demonstartes limited understanding of the Ecosystem that has evolved over the last 25 years. It also forces me to ask who is the Figurehead for Mobile? The PC industry had Bill Gates, the Internet has John Chambers but who do we have?

2009 looks like a hard year for most, which will require cooperation from all if we are to survive the storm. To limit the losses and maintain progression someone needs to look at the WHOLE industry and see that if we are to deliver on its potential it at last needs a genuine leader. That person will have to have an understanding of the HISTORY of all in our Industry and see that we now face the third inflection point which means that it is no longer about a single player controlling the market but rather an ecosystem that requires all to be healthy. Once they understand where we have come from they will need to understand what we could achieve so that they can start to work on what will need to change to get there.

A Figurehead will be able to talk with the Mobile Networks, Infrastructure Makers, Handset Manufacturers, Software House and those who provide the Content and build a Federation that is capable of taking us forward. They will understand that in most countries Mobile is one of the Top 5 industries when it comes to share of the GDP and so will be able to talk with Politicians and Regulators to reassure that they are not forming a Cartel. If we can find our Champion they will be someone with the vision to grow the sector 10-15 fold over the next five years.

As our Champion they will need to talk with the Press in such a way that they explain how we have come so far so fast, the focus will not be on the gadgets but rather the the impact on people's lives and the benefits mobile have brought. It cannot be about the technology, too many of the Engineers in mobile grew up watching Star Trek and have devoted themselves to fulfilling what they saw on the TV. They will need to speak in Parables that educate and evangelise just what an impact the mobile has had in twenty short years. We have the potential to make the mobile phone THE remote control for life, but do we have the person who can deliver that prospect?

Talking to the Industry, he will need to be able to insure that the future is about mutual benefit rather than a zero sum game. A Mobile Phone Network might need to pay over the odds for base stations but the Equipment Manufacturer will have to deliver software that works to open application interfaces so that handset and services work on the equipment without the need to new firmware. Handset Manufacturers will need to understand that the days of milk and honey are over, they need to adopt global standards that allow developers to reach customers and thus stimulate usage. When it comes to selling applications there needs to be a better store than Apple, Google, Handango or Vodafone have managed to build so far. Handset Manufacturers need to better understand and work with component suppliers, now is not the time to destock but rather invest, a Chipset manufacturer needs a return on their investment or they will stop innovating the cost base does not work on a networking effect.

With a Champion for Mobile we will have someone who in Private can bang heads so that all can benefit and in public sells the Industry to the World. It has worked for the PC and the Internet the most successful with such a model has to be the Catholic Church. The CEO's of all the Major Players could form a "house of Cardinals" just do not let them ellect a leader. Those I currently see at the top of the tree lack the knowledge or charisma to be a Champion, as they are the second generation of leaders in the sector they do not have the understanding of the level of cooperation rather than competition needed for ALL to progress.

A look back at 2008

2008-12-17T21:40:00.002Z

This year in terms of mobile technology I have decided to take a multiple device strategy rather than try and do all things with a single machine. Whilst it has not been cheap it has been productive.

I have downgraded my Sony Ericsson P1i smartphone to the Sony Ericsson C905i and the first plus side is that I can now operate for a whole working day rather than discover that my battery has died just as clients from America come a calling.

I also managed to upgrade my Skypephone from 3 with the second generation of the handset. The device looks better than the original, the battery lasts longer and the new price plan means that I only have to top up every 90 days. However 3 seem to have missed a trick or two because whilst they give me access to Planet 3 I cannot buy anything for my handset. I hope that they have learnt from this with the Facebook phone.

When I am heading into London to meet people rather than give presentations I have taken to carrying either my iPod Touch or Eee PC which allows me to keep on top of my email and also surf the web whilst I await my coffee to cool enough for me to drink it.

When I do need to take my Laptop or Macbook then I also pack my Mobile Broadband dongle so that I can do some work whilst the tube makes its slow trundle back to Hertfordshire. I have tested the service provided by Orange, 3 and Vodafone and the later is best suited to my needs as they at least seem to be able to provide at least 50% coverage on my journey home. I just wish that the power drain was less.

In terms of services I use on my handset, the good news about no longer having a UIQ handset is that I can at last use Yahoo Go 3. The interface is good, I would like to have access to a few better widgets but it works well as a simple app store. It allows me to have access to my email, RSS feeds and upload photos to flickr. I have also been Twittering away on my phone which is interesting. Other Social Networking on my handset has not been as successful, for facebook to work for me I need a bigger screen and LinkedIn is best done with a 13inch plus screen.

I am starting to work more with the GPS in my handset. I don’t use it everyday but I do use it at the weekend when I am visiting places new to me.
In deciding to carry a number of devices I have had to invest in a couple of bigger bags to carry everything. I have also been talking with a friend who runs a bag design company about the need to develop a better man bag. As well as phone I carry a Camera, iPod, Sony Reader, Note Book when I am working. At the weekend the Sony Reader and Camera are not needed but I then have a bigger camera and lenses and my Macbook.

I was thinking that I had a strange case on OCD with my collecting of gadgets but watching others on my commute I am seeing more and more people are carry a range of devices. A recent news report said that UK kids were the best to mug as they were carrying over £800 of gadgets, so I cannot be alone. My disposable income just means that I am to buy more gadgets than the normal consumer.

The impact for the Mobile Networks, I am the guy that you should sell SIM only to for the main device and then as some form of loyalty programme you should offer mobile broadband. Talking of loyalty, when are you going to start doing with just some of the data that you have about me? Why don’t you use the opportunity presented every month to start a conversation with me? Why don’t you look at the HLR data and understand that I have become somewhat of a fan of Sony Ericsson and so stop trying to push another maker’s device at me? When are you going to reward me with lower call costs to my most called numbers?

2009 will be an interesting period in the history of mobile. I am sure that over the period I will get 4-6 new handsets, I hope to get a femtocell so that my home is better served with 3G services. I don’t think that I will be looking for convergence anytime soon, rather as with my knife draw in the kitchen I will seek out the best tool for the job. When it comes to embedded mobile broadband I hope that Sony don’t do a deal with T-Mobile for connectivity because if they do I will format the machine before I transfer data and then demand that my Network support my Vaio.

Is this lazy analysis?

2008-11-09T09:12:00.002Z

The last few days has seen a number of sites pick up on the latest news from Canalys bout the shape of the smartphone market. The latest view on the shape and movement in Smartphones is that Apple has grabbed second place in the market with some 17% jumping over RIM and Windows Mobile. Getting detailed numbers on the size of the business market is very difficult and looking at the PR for this report I have to question some of the assumptions.

Whilst I have no reason to question the analysis of Apples success with the 3G iPhone I have to question the numbers for both RIM and Windows Mobile. Over the course of my work I has been difficult to accurately get shipment numbers for either of these companies, the Management of both are very good at not answering questions and the fact that the distribution channels are different to the classic handset business that sell to consumers. Whilst both RIM and HTC do sell handsets to the consumer most are business sales and are thus far more difficult to measure.

I do agree that Apple will have a fight to keep it's position as number 2 in the market now that most fans who wanted the God phone have got one. Since the period this report covers is the one that includes the summer I would expect to see changes in the next two reports that see Apple slip to 4. Symbian's performance as the dominant supplier could be interesting, this report shows that in the period 18.5M Symbian handsets were sold which is somewhat above the forecast given by Symbian themselves at their recent Smartphone show.

Post included in 148th Carnival of the Mobilists

2008-11-04T08:04:00.003Z

This weeks carnival is over at MoPocket and my post on Symbian has been included.

The posts on the iPhone are interesting if you don't like mine.

Giving Up on a Smartphone

2008-10-30T10:48:00.004Z

At the start of this week Orange sent me a new handset. I decided that this time I would take the Sony Ericsson C905 rather than a Smartphone. For the last six months I have been able to access my Email via a Windows Mobile Smartphone, Sony Ericsson P1 and iPod Touch I also have a Mobile Broadband Dongle and so have been able to use my Laptop to reply to email even if I cannot find a hotspot.

Rather than carry power cables so that my main handset has a days worth of power I have a handset that has fast connectivity for the times that I need it. If this experience continues I might just decide that when my renewal is due on the other Smartphone I no longer wish to have such a device and once again select a simple device; I know that the Network would be happy to give me a cheaper device which it has to pay for. I wonder if the Handset guys have strategy people who are looking at the fact that we now seem to be carrying multiple devices becuase the Smartphone is not something that we buy into as consumers?

Over the last three days I have charged the phone once, I am using the handset to check email when travelling have been able to download Yahoo Go3, Opera, Google Maps so I have not given up on data but rather no longer have a Qwerty input device.

If I find that the form factor does not work then I will have to swap the handset for something else but at present I am happy to have a phone that makes calls and receives messages for a whole business day and I am carrying a number of other devices that allow me to respond to those messages that I see as important.

Maybe once Orange gets its mapping service to work I might discover that the battery drains faster because I am using GPS. But if the experience of my Nikon Coolpix P6000 are any indication geotagging will be limited.

I still would have loved to have been able to have something simple that would have transfered the content stored on my old handset to the new one quickly and simply. If only Cognima had been able to find a route to market for the software as well as service that is now Shozu. I now that mobyko does something similar but it just does not seem as simple.

Photo from Sony Ericsson Blog

Has Symbian not learnt from Psion?

2008-10-28T08:12:00.003Z

Last week I went to the Symbian Smartphone show with hope, it had moved out of the docklands and the Handset business is facing competition at the high end. After 30 minutes at the show I was fealing that Symbian is at the risk of missing the party.

In the Keynote Symbian's CEO spoke about the fact that this year 50M new smartphones will be sold making 250M handset shipped in the 10 years it has been formed. He said that these numbers demonstrate to developers that by sticking with with Symbian they will have the advantage of speed. However when you look at the new developer networks what you see is a shop that sits outside the networks control and has very simple terms (providing that you are not a competitor to the main spftware).

Others in talking about evolution accuse Symbian of being bloted. Whilst long time watchers call the death of UIQ which means that the new Foundation will be based on the S60 platform. This means that Symbian is at risk of becoming a Software arm of Nokia and who would want to get in bed with the largest handset maker?

This years Symbian event was my fifth year in attendance the quality of the speakers this year was weaker than in the past. I would have hoped that in moving to Earls Court they could have got Senior Executives from Vodafone, Orange and T-Mobile they did not. This forces me to question just what level of endorsement does Symbian have? Having considered things I fear that they have little more than warm words.

The FT is reporting that in this economic downturn will hit the handset guys rather than the Networks. The Symbian devices are amoungst the most expensive and so are at risk when budgets are cut by Networks looking to limit costs. Walk into a handset shop and what you see from RIM, Apple and Windows Mobile all impresses more than the Symbian Handsets.

Psion stopped making PDA's when they were let down by Motorola on the development of a Smartphone and internal research showed that the consumer want a number of devices rarther than one that did it all. Whilst PSION allowed some excellent engineers to develop few remember that however did not save the company. On the basis of what I saw last week Symbian is at risk of being the platform that the train passes rather than stops at.

Technology Futures Network event

2008-10-16T20:00:00.004+01:00

Last month I managed to make it up to Oxford to listen to Craig Barrett speak at the Said Business School to a group of MBA students and members of the Technology Futures Network. The first event of the TFN at the same venue saw Dr Irwin Jacobs of Qualcomm and so it was good to hear another from the chip industry talk.

Craig Barrett has been with Intel from the early days having joined from the teaching staff at Stanford University. He spoke about the fact that what any country needs to succeed in the present climate is an Environment for Innovation. The first thing that is needed is Smart People, these are well educated in mathematics and science rather than business and finance. The next thing that is needed in Smart Ideas, these are both basic development and Blue Sky research. Finally what is needed is Smart Environments this is somewhere that has Money, Government that taxes smart and offers innovators protection and promotion of their ideas.

Craig went on to talk about planning to eat your own children i.e. what you are doing today will not do for next year therefore if it has to change then you should be the one that does that change. Look for the Technology Transformation in a sector and grasp the opportunity to upset the status quo and lead that industry. He used the rise of Nokia and fall of Motorola to demonstrate the change to digital in mobile telecommunications in the mid 1990's.

One of his grips was that the Bush Government has let the R&D Tax credit system lapse and so now US businesses are offshoring Research and Development because of the tax rates. Intel at present invests 50% of its budget in South East Asia. His other major grip is the quality of maths education in the under 12's if a child has a bad teacher in these early school years they are lost to maths because they cannot catch up.

His advise to the MBA students in the room was that they should have read engineering if they want to be a CEO. The reason is that it equips you to be a better problem solver. Once you have a management position act like a pre-school child and always ask why - five times to get to the bottom of the problem/issue.

Finally he said that once you become an Executive eat out at the chinese regularly as the best advice he has had was from the fortune cookies. His top three are

"If you want to win you have to chose to compete"
"Small deeds done better than great deeds planned" and
"The world is always ready to receive talent with open arms"

After two weeks of working hard to prove assumptions on models in a changing market his opening comment that the future is knowledge therefore education is critical are wise words.

Random Thoughts

2008-10-16T08:29:00.002+01:00

Have been busy thanks to the current financial situation and so not had time to blog.

The Mobile Networks seem to have changed the business model successfully when it comes to Subscriber Acquisition Costs which has affected both the retailers and handset manufacturers. The Networks are looking for staged payments over the course of the contract dependent on spend which combined with longer length contracts could have changed the business model of the likes of Phones4You and Carphone Warehouse.

The European Regulator seems to wish to use her role to promote political ambitions back home, however in doing so she has made it very difficult to invest in new data services if you are a mobile network. Some of her economics seem strange from my seat when it comes to the cost of transit. It is all well and good to look at the lowest cost but at this moment very few networks are effective as we have a mix of standards running on 4 generations of networks.

Looking at networks the move towards Mobile Broadband still is a solution looking for a market in my view. However I do not think that we will be looking at the technology in the same way as we do with MMS; the consumer needs to understand better what he is getting before we have something that is long term. Recent trips have shown that WiFi and Mobile Broadband in London are mainstream with the number of “old style” internet cafes that are closed. My summer holiday in Greece proved that the same is not true as you move south with very poor service available.

What does all this mean to the Consumer?

I think that the traditional spurge on Handsets at Christmas will not be seen this year. Whilst some have been attracted to the glitz of an iPhone more have turned their back on it. Over the last few weeks I have been interested to look at the number of people who are using a Blackberry. It no longer seems to be the technology of the City, I have had to wait for shop assistants to finish an email and been held up in the Gym by women emailing. It will be interested to see what happens once they have got the bugs out of the Bold and Storm when it comes to attacking the consumer market. Sony Ericsson has a challenging time ahead it needs to get the new handsets into the stores at the same time it needs to retire handsets like the K800i. A number of Senior Executives are using the Xperia handset prior to its launch and I for one love the handset. Nokia seem to have lost the love in Europe with few interested in Comes with Music and the availability of E and N series being limited by the larger Networks. The reason for this is I think the price is disconnected at the moment. Looking at Price Plans as I do more and more often the Consumer is expected to pay some of the cost of the handset or commit to a higher than average monthly fee.

Recent research has shown that Mobile Networks have at this moment got the tariffs wrong. They are giving away too much, with under 40% of those on a contract using 50% of a bundle. This means that perceptions of value are lower than they should be. We are in danger of forgetting just what the mobile premium is. When I joined Motorola the fixed telecoms network was unreliable and getting to talk to someone was hit or miss. Roll the clock forward nearly 25 years and we now call someone rather than someplace if we cannot connect we can leave a message. New technology allows presence based solutions which will allow users to see who is available to take a call just as we can with IM services such as Skype.

My Holiday Experience

2008-08-23T20:40:00.002+01:00

This year we took our family holiday in Kos.

I did not have my mobile on all the time but I did use it someone of the time.

The first thing that I was interested to discover was that my connection in the Hotel was with Turkcell rather than a Greek network. In Kos Town I was connected with Wind and in the more rural areas I was on Cosmote. Whilst I know that the order in which I connect when roaming is a function of the relationships that my Network has with overseas providers I was surprised to discover that when I was in Greece my primary connection was with a Turkish network.

Text messaging was not functioning as well as I could have hoped. Messages were delivered out of synchronization.

In my Hotel WiFi connectivity was to a satellite services rather than DSL line. This meant that timing was everything if you wanted a service that worked. Try and get online between 19:00 and 22:00 local time and you were likely to discover that the service was patchy. If you connected between 10:00 and 15:00 the service worked well. This meant that Email was as reliable as my SMS.

Given that the fixed Internet was so poor I would have been happy to try the Mobile Broadband however I could not get a connection that was any better than GPRS.

Looking at some of my fellow holiday makers use of mobile was interesting. Most seemed to feel that they were on Holiday and so did not carry their mobiles with them. At the end of a day by the pool a number could be found catching up on voicemail before heading for Dinner.

The most interesting group was the children holidaying with Parents. A few took a phone call to inform the other that they were in Greece and saw that they cut the call immediately thinking that they were being charged for an International Call.

From my observations I say that Mobile Networks need to do more planning of network coverage. Turkcell have planned a network for the 1.5M who stay in Bodrum in the holiday period; whilst the Greek Networks are working on the 20-30K who live on Kos in the Winter. An intelligent network could see base stations deployed for the high season and then placed in sleep mode. The incremental revenues would be profitable as they would be predominately holiday makers who were paying roaming rates rather than a flat fee.

The experience of the youths shows that pricing is still something that is a dark art. Better information needs to be sent to those arriving in a new country so that they do not experience bill shock.

Latest Carnival of the Mobilists

2008-07-21T22:07:00.003+01:00

My post has been included in the latest Carnival by Andreas over at Vision Mobile. Go over and read a round up of some of the best writing on Mobile Blogs in the last seven days.

iPhone 2.0 a stepping stone not Nirvana

2008-07-20T14:53:00.005+01:00

So one week into iPhone 2.0 and what do I think so far?

The device is owned by four friends so far. Another few have said that they would upgrade to one after the summer holidays once others have smoothed out the bugs for them.

Would I get a iPhone or am I waiting for a Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 which should be available in September?

I think that I will pass on the iPhone at present. I was lucky enough to be given a 32GB iTouch which I have upgraded to 2.0 and so am able to share in some of the excitement of the App Store. I would have issues with the iPhone on battery life and my big fat falanges make text input a bind. I also am finding Mobile Me a little light of functions compared even to the SE Phone Suite when it copmes to moving data between laptop and device.

The App Store is interesting and I wonder how long before we might see similar on the Operator Portals for ALL handsets. Russell Beattie points out that it is not something thought up by Apple but rather borrowed from Qualcomm who developed it for the Brew Platform.

I am still to be convinced that Mr Jobs is committed to the Mobile Phone market. You only have to look at the present pain felt by others to ask if he has the endurance? The iPhone has not broken the market for Mobile, Apple have learnt just as Nokia did that the Networks are still key in any relationship with the user thanks to the billing relationship reather than coverage. Whilst we see statistics that show a significant number of users of mobile data services none yet say that for any particular service they are exclusive users of the service! Thus Apple are doing things better than others but it is still the same user activity if different experience.

I might become more conviced about the iPhone if I could discover more than one form factor. When it comes to iPods I am give a choice not just in terms of storeage but also in terms of form factor with the Shuffle, Nano, Classic and iTouch but when one looks at the iPhone you get two coloure and two sizes! Not exactaly a wide range, even compared to RIM for example.

I am sure that now we have a 3G iPhone we can expect to see more people using one. A number of committed MAC fans will now be ready to own one, dispite having to downgrade the quality of their camera. I am confident that in those markets where the Consumer has choice we will see even better penetration. I guess we will have to wait until we have iPhone 3.0 before we can say if this was a fad or a serious player in the game?

New Report: Market is ready for Mobile Wallet

2008-07-16T09:36:00.003+01:00

The latest report from John Devlin at IMS Research points out that the federated approach of the US, Japan and South Korea is gaining traction when it comes to Mobile Payments. "Strong Partnerships are being formed between Banks and Mobile Networks;" comments Devlin.

The reason - Improved coverage, greater uptake of feature phones and smartphones, higher mobile penetration and service availability have all contributed to this. As much as anything, greater demand from consumers, operators and financial stakeholders has seen the number of application developers and platform providers all multiply in numbers in recent years.

So can we expect these benefits to be seen in the UK?

I fear not. The way that UK Banks have adopted Faster Payments shows that the technology infrastructure is lagging behind in to many of the High Street Banks. With the rush to lend money the Banks have not invested in the systems needed to effect day to day current account transactions without those the ability to interface with a mobile phone to make payments will be very limited. The current difficulties within UK Banking means that they are looking for low cost solutions rather than high value. So we have to expect to be left on the hard shoulder let alone the slow lane when it comes to mobile banking.

Fierce 15 for 2008

2008-07-13T19:47:00.003+01:00

Looking at the latest list of Start-Up in Wireless to follow from the Fierce point of view I was interested to see that mFoundry was one tipped for a bright future. Since first hearing of them they have managed to get funding from Bank of American and now serve 15 of the top 20 Banks in America when it comes to mobile banking. The PayPal P2P payment service on mobile is one that uses mFoundry.

"Effective mobile-banking marketing targets specific segments, such as business travelers, and highlights the ways mobile banking can serve the segments," said Tripp Rackley CEO of Firethorn at the Mobile Commerce Summit last month in Las Vegas. Marketing to specific groups also helps financial institutions gain more mobile users than just the early adopters, he added.

American Banker says that within 12-24 months ALL Financial institutions will use Mobile as a channel to customers. If this is right then mFoundry and Firethorn along with ClairMail and Yodlee will be at the centre of a very profitable industry. Javelin have been looking at the market for some time and Bruce Cundiff reports that almost a third of users are Paying Bills, almost the same are monitoring transactions and over a quater are transfering funds between accounts.

Whilst all these things excite me, I am frustrtaed by the fact that as a Customer of the Halifax I am at the back of the line when it comes to technology adoption. The way that the "Bank" has adopted faster payments shows that they are very much a follower when it comes to new technology.

Carnival of Mobilists

2008-07-07T21:36:00.003+01:00

MJelly has the editors pencil this week when it comes to selecting the best in Mobile blogging and he has selected my post last week on Time for a Change.

Head over an take a look at some excellent analysis of the Symbian deal amd Purple labs buying back of its IP from Openwave.

Time for a change?

2008-06-30T07:42:00.004+01:00

If we are to see Mobile to continue to grow, then some structural changes are needed. With change at the top of Vodafone could we have a catalyst for change?

The new CEO of Vodafone offers something different from the status quo. In Viterio Colao you have someone with the skills of a Strategy Consultant supplemented with Operational Experience of a Country Manager. Having worked in the Italian Media industry he also has developed diplomatic skills that sees him able to form federations.

The price of a mobile minute is afalling thanks to competition and regulation. Whilst I expect to pay some premium for my use of mobile over fixed it is not as great as it once was. The reason for the deflation in the value that I place on the value has to do with my perception that mobile coverage is not as good as it once was; along with the lack of innovation in the basic product, Voice. Those that offer Mobile Data Services have failed to grasp the fact that for me it is connectivity for my Laptop whilst I enjoy a coffee between meetings rather than ebay and facebook coverage on my handset.

With a new CEO vodafone can take advantage of their scale and influence to alter the way the whole ecosystem functions. They could acknowledge the fact that at this moment the revenue streams are out of kilter and recent adjustments have not achieved a better balance.

At the moment Equipment Manufacturers have little incentive to innovate with margins falling over the last two years to less than 5%. If Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks or Nortel cannot find a reason to invest in developing new data solutions then what chance the Mobile Internet? The current Mobile Broadband has placed a massive load on the OSS and BSS systems in Mobile Networks as 5% of users are consuming two thirds of all data on the network. Whilst Huawei have excelled in the development of HSDPA/HSUPA/HSDP+ as they have taken marketshare to the point that today sees them leading the field; what will motivate them to create the flat architecture needed to open the mobile web?

The content space is no better with those that provide free content doing better than those who have a subscription service. The quality of the network means that very few attempts to watch streaming media by myself have been a success. Efforts by Networks to impose additional standards have resulted in displacing successful content with bland services that nobody wants. The iTunes platform is not something loved by Artists because the economics are wrong however the portal approach of Mobile Networks seeks to replicate this.

The battle between Handset Manufacturers and Mobile Networks seems to have swung to much in favour of the Networks. Sony Ericsson joined others in reporting a slowing of sales this year and a lowering of its average selling price. This means that they will expect to get a better return on the investment it makes in handset design which means that we can expect handsets to stick around longer. The only people I know who upgrade the firmware on a phone are iPhone users who are prompted to do so when they connect the device to a computer rather than over the air. To many early adopters have attempted to do so on other devices and turned them into bricks because of Operator profiles. If we slow the rate of release of new handsets then we will slow the rate of innovation as this is the only way that we can seed new services. We are now looking a handset makers moving towards three platforms in a way similar to the computer market with Windows Mobile, Symbian and Linux. This lowers the cost of deployment for Mobile Networks and makes the developers lives easier because the APIs needed will be smaller.

Recent projects have seen me look at the launch of Mobile Banking in the US. Over the last year they have managed to get over 8M Consumers to move from the Internet to the Phone. Some are just doing simple queries whilst just under half are making payments. This market is serviced by a wide range of service enablers who have acted as trusted providers sitting between Banks and Mobile Networks. All in the process share the rewards in a federated approach no one is talking about "my customers" rather it is about users. Dependent on the handset and my financial needs I can Bank using SMS, Browser or Java Aplet. All those working in Mobile Banking have a common evolutionary path that sees them working towards Mobile Payments and then Mobile Wallet over the next 2-3 years. They will include Store Cards, Coupons, NFC, Access and Keys in the evolutionary steps. They are all able to work on the development of functionality because they have a framework that is stable thanks to the Federated approach.

The work of the European Commission seems to be to reduce the mobile premium to zero via regulation.

Taking all of the points above I would hope that Stratergy in Vodafone would apply some degree of logic that says its time to make a massive change otherwise we face the risk of becoming a dumb pipe. If European Networks do not change the way that they deal with partners then they will find themselves by passed. The difference between fixed and mobile is that mobile has the payments mechanism built in thus connected consumers with retailers the mobile network could take a commission on the sale. If Vodafone were to look outside of Telecoms and say we will become a facilitator in the same way as Tecso's Clubcard provider the ARPU will not come just from handset user but from those that want to communicate with them; this is after all the plan of Blyk. Better software installed at the level of the base station could improve the information that the Mobile Networks gather and thus aid knowledge about the users. At this moment my Network providers know very little about me or my useage of mobile as I us more than one network and so simple bill anaysis fails.

In Europe rather than buying new subscribers the focus needs to be getting more of the current subscribers wallet. As a mobile user we all have a budget, some of the most informed users are those with a limited budget. My daughters and their classmates have an excellent knowledge of prices for mobile and are innovating how they share content off network. What they present for Vodafone is a communication chanel which used correctly will provide revenues far greater than the amount they spend on connectivity. The FMCG community has an excellent knowledge of Brands and are will to pay for a conversation with small groups who they can get to spend money on increasing the money they already spend on a product.

If you look at the failure of WiMAX, IMS, MMS ..... to find a market you will see that one common feature is the lack of a common ecosystem. Perhaps if these technologies had first attempted to form a Federation then they would have been a success? Vodafone has the power thanks to size and footprint. Does it have a CEO prepared to change the game?

Some quick thoughts

2008-06-27T16:08:00.005+01:00

Have been busy causing trouble and disrupting poor thinking in some of the big clients that I consult for.

On one level I am ashamed by some of the thinking that I have seen from the Blue Chip Strategy Houses and have to hope that clients will reject the invoices when they are presented. However I fear that the fact that people were not fired if IBM were hired rings true when it comes to Bain and McKinsey.

Over the last week I have been forced to look at the published analysis of Mobile Broadband in Europe more than I would have chosen to. Clients have asked will we see the Mobile Networks follow the fixed in becoming just a dumb pipe? The one thing that I think will stop this is the payment relationship that the mobile networks have, if you already have one payment mechanism why would you need to invent a new one as you did with pay pal on the fixed internet. I also think that Voice could play an important part in the new data services that we will use. Vox shows some of the possibility with turning you voicemail into text. My Opera browser on the desktop shows some of what might happen with its voice controls. Before you buy into mobile broadband, the situation in Sweden, Finland or Austria is not something that can be used for the Globe or even the five biggest European markets on the basis of population. PC ownership in Spain and Italy is far lower than in Northern Europe for a start.

What are Nokia doing with Symbian?

Since the departure of Psion from the party it started Nokia have controlled the shape and direction of Symbian. We are told that Symbian leads the Smartphone market in terms of sales globally. However do Symbian phone's demonstrate that they are smart? When I was a Psion user you had a community of geeks who developed and exchanged software which they hoped they could replicated on Phones. They failed because the Networks were closed to personalisation that was more than just wallpapers and ringtones. I have explained that I see handsets as looking somewhat like the computer market of the mid-1980's in that we have too many Operating Systems. Only history will prove if Symbian was the DOS3.1 of mobile OS rather than VAX. The power of Nokia has put Symbian at risk because of its close association. At the moment all I see is Nokia saving money paying licence fees and the demise of S40 because the only reason it is used at present is because it has a lower charge. If they both have a zero cost Nokia will Supersize the OS with S60.

Was Motorola's new handset the last roll of the dice? This weeks new handset with its Kodac 5Meg Camera was behind the curve once again. Is this something to show that they still are around in the hope that they can find a buyer? Will be interested in seeing how public Huawei are about the PE House offers for a stake in their Handset Business. Should give an idea as to just what my old Motorola shares are worth not that I expect to be able to more than buy the family a round of ice creams with the "profits"!

Today's FT shows that what some Vodafone shareholders wanted may be about to come to pass with the Head of Verizon talking about taking control and buying assets overseas. The new CEO faces a challenging time when he takes the top job at Vodafone. I expect that those in Newbury are on for exciting times for the next 12 months.

Thoughts from the Network Equipment World

2008-06-15T11:13:00.004+01:00

Over the last few weeks I have been looking at the current and future trends in the world of Mobile Network Equipment.

Over the last few weeks we have seen Nortel move away from IMS and WiMAX and put its money behind LTE.

China have started to restructure its telecoms structure and so ZTE and Huawei might not have the workforce to continue to erode margins in Europe.

I was at a presentation from Nokia Siemens Networks where they spoke of the fact that they are managing over 1Billion HLRs for its customers, its new flex base station is saving money for operators by improved power management and the purchase of Apertio has given them the tools that might improve the user experience. The CEO is looking at becoming a Services business that aims at improving the cost of running a network rather than facilitating multimedia services.

The arrival of the Chinese in the market has effected margins to the effect that over the last two years they have fallen to less tha 5%, which explains why they have been buying business via outsourcing deals.

For the Mobile Data fanboys the Network guys are saying that until they have installed a flat architecture that allows users to conect to the internet at the base station the walled gardens will always be needed to shape traffic.

Could Southern Europe jump Internet Banking for Mobile Banking?

2008-06-14T14:50:00.003+01:00

Recent work sees me look at at the levers needed for Mobile Banking in Western Europe. Looking at what is available to date and outside the UK it seems that in Italy has seen innovation by the Post Office who are an MVNO. PosteMobile now offer bill payment over mobile phones. Customers with a PosteMobile prepaid card or BancoPosta bank account san pay bills. On a technical level the service sends an email and SMS to confirm successful payment. It costs €o.15.

The Post Office Bank in Switzerland plan to launch mobile payment services with a large marketing campaign targeting young people attending music festivals over the summer.

Now All I need to understand is the Post Office in Southern Europe still the main service for Bill Payment as it once was in the UK before Thatcher & Co put it to the sword. Am sure that Southern Europe is much more a cash based economy than Northern Countries and so Bill Payment forms a bigger part than the UK ,where a significant number use direct debit.

More bad news for Mobile Services

2008-06-12T08:11:00.005+01:00

I have spent the last few weeks looking at the boom in Mobile Banking in America. I have benefited from the excellent blog by Brandon McGee and LinkedIn's ability to contact the key people quickly to bring myself up to speed having focused on the Mobile Payments boom in the Emerging Markets.

The first thing that get me is just how much the Banks have spent on Adverts that educate Consumers to the fact that they can Bank on the mobile. Chase has spent $70M so far this year and others have matched that spend.

Wells Fargo have adopted the most diverse platform offering Customers the opportunity to Bank via SMS, Browser and Java Client. Bank of America leads the field with 1M customers after just 9 months.

That's the good new, the bad news is that the best way forward at present is a Simple solution that uses SMS because users are too dumb to find the Java ap once the have installed it and the networks use of content rendering solutions means that they can't present a consistent view via a browser.

So here in the UK we have a system that few have heard of and less are using. Mobile Banking is happening in the US and Payments are now at the centre of business plans in Emerging Markets as the channel to reach the Unbanked. In the UK we have little prospect thanks to the fact that mobile data is something that Consumers stay away from because of the assumed high costs. Will be held back because of a lack of clear thought or will it be because we are not financially literate?

The CEO of ClairMail is telling Banks in the US that mobile needs to be at the centre of their strategy because of the fact that it will drive Dialogue in the same way that Tesco's drives business with the Clubcard.

Wells Fargo are developing Mobile becuae it matches the profile of its customer base, this profile sounds like First Direct in the UK but HSBC do not seem to see the need for the service.

A few reference points for you, less than 70% of Americans have a Bank Account, under 40% have a Cell Phone. Yet they see the value in Mobile Banking not for Payments but rather in fraud protection and marketing terms! Here in the UK more people have a Bank Account and a Phone and yet we have no vissible services.

Mobile Banking is an ecosystem that needs to undertake defined steps if the Mobile is to replace the Walet. Without the simple account checking ability to educate users what hope does peer to peer payments have?

So just how do the mobile data evangelists square this then?

2008-05-27T16:02:00.005+01:00

I am trying to finish two blog posts at present but things keep getting in the way.

Just had to post about Ewan's problems with Vodafone and data charges.

His solution following a chat with another member of the Customer Service team is no long term solution but rather a way to exit a contract that he feels is unfair.

I had a similar issue with the rates that Orange wanted to charge me for unlimited data useage last year. The good news was that I had the name and number of the head of the executive office and after a short call managed to get the to fix the problem and refund the over charge. It took them two months to resolve the issue. It also highlighted holes in the billing systems used by the operator.

So with a disconnect between Marketing and Operations just how will the networks enter the market? Ewan is now unhappy with both T-Mobile and Vodafone. He intends to try 3 on the basis of cost. In a market that sees everyone who wants a mobile having two the networks need to retain customers. With termination rates falling they seek to replace declining revenues from Voice by selling people something new, Data. This sale is not informed as they have little understanding of what a normal user consumes and so cannot price accordingly. With the investments made in 3G the Network needs to find some form of ROI or it will not build the networks, see O2.

If all those who spoke at Mobile Portal Strategy last week are to deliver the vision of Mobile they hold then they have to remove the bill shock. Why did Vodafone not have a Credit Control process in place that gave Ewan a warning that he had used his allowance and then it was his dicision to stop or pay through the nose? Ewan is not the only one to be surprised by the cost of Data. The Bloke in the Pub effect will mean that Mobile Data falls into the WAP is C**P sector if the networks do not quickly resolve pricing.

This could be fun!

2008-05-15T19:24:00.004+01:00

Next week I am Chairing the first day of Informa's Internet Portal Strategies conference.

The Event Producer sent me the welcome pack today and so I have had the opportunity to review the agenda and speakers. When I was asked if I would do this I did warn that it could be lively given my view that Mobile Data is far from main stream.

The first two speakers look interesting in that they come from the print industry. Then we have a couple of friends talking about User experience and advertising. Then after Lunch we will have the networks talk about how they will monitise the process. Followed by the Sun talking about how they engage with their "readership" before Turner talk Mobile TV. If the speakers can engage then I might become less of naysayer - then you might just see Richard Dawkins next to Tony Blair taking Communion on a Sunday!

Not going to be able to make all of the second day as I have a client breakfast to attend, a lot of friends are presenting and so I do intent to grab a free lunch and do a bit of networking!

If you want to come along then drop me a line via the comments box and I will send you a VIP discount form. For those that are unable to attend I will write up ALL that happens next week.

Are Mobile Phones causing traffic jams?

2008-05-09T15:51:00.003+01:00

Three times this week driving to meetings I have had to endure heavy than expected traffic. Whilst the number of people on the road was high there was no logical reason for the slow traffic. We were not being funneled into fewer lanes, no one had broken down or crashed.

Watching some of those that are travelling slower than the average speed all to often they were on the phone, those that were the worse example of a roadblock were doing data rather than voice.

Is one of the problems with mobile becoming mass market the fact that people think that they can use the device anywhere? Even Television is a technology that people realise was not something that worked in ALL aspects of our life. Why then is it that Mobile is something that people do not seem to realise needs context?

I am starting to become annoyed by those who think its expectable to take calls when eating with me. If I can turn of my three phones why can't they switch off their one!

Is Cuba doing wrong in opening up telecoms to its population? Would it be a better situation if Mobile Networks undertook a fit and proper person test as well as a credit check on all new customers?

The fact that everyone who wants a mobile has one is good news for the Networks, Government, Equipment and Handset industries but is it good for society? It does not seem that social pressure works with these people when it comes to getting then to accept norms. What is it about having a mobile phone that makes some users Autistic?

It is not a class issue. It was not only those that drove a BMW who were guilty of acting as a rolling road block. It is not a gender issue or race. The bad news is that "convictions" for using a mobile while driving do not seem to count on police statistics. If they did then we could expect to see a road camera that captured not just the drivers face but also his mobile number so that they can add a new revenue stream to Police income. The M4/A4 would be full of Police if the figures made a difference to crime statistics.

I am not a Grumpy Old Git but I do feel that at times the last thing that you need is a Phone whilst you are in a car, shopping in a supermarket, taking a comfort break. Send a text message when you are nose to tail on a road is dangerous, doing it in the Fast lane is stupid!

Deloitte reports on M-Payments

2008-04-28T15:23:00.004+01:00

First off an appology to those who do bother to read this blog, I have been busy with work and so not spent as much time writing as I would have liked.

One of the assignments that I have been working on is the possible future of the Handset business. Very soon I think that we will be in a position where the incremental improvements become so small it will be difficult to sell them as the next great leap forward. I think that Italy will be the first country that this happens as nearly 40% of the users have a 3G handset, France will be the last of the Big 5 to adopt such a model as it has the smallest number of 3G users.

I think that what users will adopt is a "Business Watch" play in that they will have a Work Phone, Dress Phone and Weekend Phone which they swap a single SIM between them. The Network will provide its services on a SIM only contract and the user will buy handsets in something closer to the Apple store than CPW.

If we accept the premiss that this might happen, then the networks are going to look at services rather than products that will retain staff. If that is true then M-Payment that is based on SIM NFC could be something that aids just such a retension. Tarriffing will not be something that helps retain the users as regulation will lower prices, just look at what has happened with International Roaming.

What Deloitte does not address is the fact that at present the Networks strategy is to just rent space on the SIM to a Payment Processing Group rather than understand the customer segmentation. But then my Network fails to understand that as well as a relationship with them, I also have relationships with tow of its rivals so how can it understand my Banking relationship?

Mobile Phone Firms rip you off....

2008-04-28T14:48:00.004+01:00

Over the weekend Channel 4 have been trailing the Dispatches report due to be broadcast tonight.

In the show they will show that Phone Shops are paid commission to sell the phone + plan that the networks want rather than the consumer needs!

So next week are they going to tell me that the sun does not go out at night it just moves so I cannot see it until the following day!

The market is all about supply and demand. How do you think that Charles Dunstone, Martin Dawes and John Caudwell all made it onto the Times Rich List?

I am going to watch the show and if the kids are luck they can expect a new TV as I will have broken the current one as I throw things at the screen. From what they say on the C4 website I cannot see an invistigation from the OFT unlike some of the other practices of the Supermarkets.

Recent thoughts

2008-04-02T08:28:00.005+01:00

Having spent a few days offline a few post on the internet recently have caught my attention.

Over at ReadWriteWeb they have two post that are worth reading. First we had a new study on iPhone users, that tells us they are far from usual phone owners. If this is the case it adds weight to my observation that what they are doing in terms of mobile data has to be discounted as the actions of early adopters. The Mobile Web needs alot of work done before it crosses the chasam one of the biggest is user education, to oftan those in the industry fail to realise that the key features for a normal user are phone + text + clock. This is something that has been emphasised to me in the last year as my twins have started to use mobile phones. What music they do do is side loaded, very little is peer to peer because it take to long to bluetooth.

The other is an updating of Mobile Web Trends and Products by Rudy De Waele. As someone who helps run one of the Mobile Monday chapters Rudy has an excellent understanding of the zeitgeist. Some of the Start Ups to watch are new to me, but others are businesses that have been trying for quite sometime to build a customer base.

Symbian/Nokia have a lot of work to do in America if this study is anything to go by. I know that the sample size is small, but it does help to explain all the America Investment Managers foolish questions on how Apple and RIM are fighting for the Enterprise space.

VisionMobile has an excellent post on User Interface technology which shows that it does not need to be only Apple that have all the bells and whistles!

Harris Interactive reports that America is ready for M-Banking, but are the Networks in synch with the Banks, Consumers and Payment Groups?

I have discovered MobileStance and his post on Anarchy in the UK is an excellent introduction into his blog.

Off message I was sent this by one of my contacts one LinkedIn it is something I believe in and so thought that I would ask those who read this to watch it.

Want to see what Mobile Money is all about?

2008-03-19T07:52:00.007Z

So the GSMA sent me an email this morning asking if I wanted to attend a two day conference on mobile money in Egypt. Out of professional interest I looked at the web site for the event and discover that I cannot see who is speaking, they have no Sponsors or Exhibitors and so it looks like a work in progress. The only problem in that the event is some two months away and so if this was a professional conference everything would have been in place.

This sums up the whole get rich quick mentality of the GSMA when it comes to mobile payments. Rather than look at the ecosystem for Mobile Banking and debate the need for joined up thinking the GSMA have decided to host a two day demonstration on why they have the magic box that will see everyone bank on their mobile. The GSMA solution is to develop a whole new approach rather than look at the banking sector and say how can we move customers from branches and atm's on to handsets? At this moment the consumer and Banks need to understand the functionality and features needed fot payments.

What we have from the GSMA is the movement of Remitances onto mobiles. Now ask youself if what you want is the ability to pay the window cleaner by text message rather than cheque rather than send hundreds of pounds to a relative overseas phone to phone.

I understand that the project manager for this has moved on from the GSMA. Perhaps they can now kill the assignment and accept that the fees paid to consultants proved that they have little chance to make money selling something that no one needs.

Mobile turns full circle

2008-03-17T14:44:00.004Z

A few years ago when planning for the arrival of 3G I undertook a study of value added services which saw the idea that Vodafone might become a retail bank. Now we have Cat Keynes asking when will Nokia buy a Bank.

One of the issues when I did my work was regulation, A mobile phone network would not be able to invest in the infrastructure at the same time as holding customers money because of liquidity rules. (In today's market I have to ask if some Investment Banks comply with liquidity rules!)

Nokia becoming a bank is interesting it would give the likes of HSBC a run in terms of Brand. However the issue is that I do not think that they would want to be a Bank in the UK thanks to the fact that we spend more than we earn.

I am keen on mobile payments and Nokia have been keen to deploy NFC technologies. The issue has to be would Nokia want to be Bank rather than an enabler for all Banks. This is after all something that it has attempted to be in the past.

Thanks Mr Rockman for the heads up.

What's wrong with this post?

2008-03-05T13:56:00.004Z

Smart Parts have a survey of what is available to the consumer when it comes to Mobile Broadband. The biggest problem I have is that Telefonica and France Telecom businesses do not have a product!

At an event last week the head of 3's Handset Group said that he intended to sell 500,000 devices for Mobile Broadband. They will be promoting the device as just the thing to have so that you can get ahead of others by using it on the train whilst you commute. Shows that he drives to work in Maidenhead because if he did he would know that it's standing room only for those who try and travel from London to Reading and would not work on the Chiltern Line that I use when I have to join the rush hour. But he is trying and those that I know that use the service are happy with the ease of use and cost.

But why can I not get the service from Orange who are the main provider of mobile for me? They did provided the service when I was in Spain last month for Mobile World Congress. They will do so later this month when I am in France. But the only way I can get the service in the UK is as a Business customer. Perhaps the new Chief Executive for Orange can get his masters in Paris to stop playing in the fixed broadband market and spend money on a mobile option, the costs should not be that high thanks to a network share agreement with Vodafone?

Before we all start picketing for better mobile broadband though perhaps we need to realise that fixed broadband seems to be something that those of us that live in the cold north of Europe. Mobile is something that is important to Europe because it generates approximately 5% of the GDP which is almost twice of what it should be worth. However what is needed is more than just dumb pipes from the mobile networks and shinny shinny toys from the handset guys.

If we are to develop we have to get all the networks to become involved, Mobile Broadband will not be mainstream in the UK until it is a service that is supplied by Virgin Mobile, Tesco Mobile AND Orange & O2 when that is so we might be able to talk about data services.

Time for a new toy

2008-03-03T08:19:00.004Z

So it has been a year since my last new handset on my T-Mobile contract after a number of text messages from "agents" wanting to help me upgrade, Something that has stopped on my Orange account I decided to see what I could get.

As I had some time to kill between meetings I decided to try a T-Mobile store so that my gratification would be instant. Only problem was that my records on the T-Mobile system have errors on that I know little about as the guy in the store cannot find me, strange as I have been a customer for the last 14 years!

Having seen the poor range of handsets from t-Mobile in the UK I selected the HTC Touch Plus and decided to call the retention team on my mobile. After spoken to three different CSA they agree that I can pick up a handset from the store and the system will find me this time.

So I stop off at a different store on the way home and get a phone but only after calling the Retention team and getting them to talk the store staff through the data errors on my account.

So after a weekend of "testing" what do I think of the touch over the TyTn device that it has replaced?

The User Interface on the Touch is a great improvement.

The processor is faster and so things run better.

The touch thing is not as good as an iPhone but it is better than only touchscreen on my last windows mobile.

The bug on the T9 system has yet to be fixed so rather than a you get c.

Battery life is good.

So far happy with a device that is basically my email device when mobile. My SE P1i is still the primary handset and the Touch would have to go some if it were to replace it.

Hyper Curve in action

2008-02-22T11:21:00.004Z

Gartner have a report to sell on how shops need to develop a M-commerce channel. Have they not seen that people want to get out of Pricechecking as no money can be made from such a service?

Expectations need to be adjusted. Whilst we are looking at the adoption of mobile services any that say that mobile data will be big in shops first needs to ask about in building coverage. Most shopping centres are very challenging when it comes to signal strength. The adoption of Radio Network Sharing might mean that coverage improves but I am not sure. The latest news from Arquiva is not bright, after all most of us are after Mobile free areas rather than better coverage.

It will be better if we can start to adopt payment services on Mobile and thus change the market rather than try and fit the fixed world into a phone.

Final Thoughts on Barcelona

2008-02-14T17:57:00.000Z

OK my time spent walking from Hall to Hall to have meetings and look at the latest trends is over. If I had taken all the papers pushed at me then I think that the excess baggage charge could be more than the price of my seat on the flight home. In a digital age this seems wrong, some have been smart enough to have added the handouts to the free memory sticks that they hand out this would also allow for links to web pages and the use of video and audio. I guess once those who are part of the Mobile ecosystem start to think in this way then we can speak about mobile being media companies until then they will have to stick at being technologists.

I think that the GSMA may have reached a tipping point in that the World congress is too big for Barcelona. In the early days in France you had a dynamic feel and deals were done in small cafe and one boats. Now you have a massive exhibition with a small conference supported by global suppliers running briefings, but too many people told me that in the next few weeks they were taking customers to Dubai to close a deal. Eventually the big guys are going to move the World Congress to Dubai so that they can talk with the Emerging Markets Customers. Whilst we saw a lot of Chinese attendees to the event I did not see many Indians or Africans and as Orascom's CEO told everyone if you do not address the Emerging Markets then you are not going to be about for long.

My themes from this years show were Coverage, Services and Future. The GSM world has been such a success because it is a vibrant ecosystem.

When I started working in Cellular Communications some 20 plus years ago we spoke about Talking to a person rather than a place. Today we are saying that mobile is about communicating with potentially everything simply and wirelessly. However great that sounds I have to ask if everyone has the same objective? To demonstrate the point today I received a new wireless printer by Lexmark and they have placed a USB cable in the box so that I can connected it with my computer to get things started, this is something they do not do with the wired printers, as I know to my cost and it is not a great inditement of wireless technology!

At the Limo launch event I attended we were treated to a talk by Dr Marty Cooper who explained who mobile was evolving and thanks to Open Standards such as Linux the cost of devices was falling to a level where all could expect to enjoy the benefits of Wireless Broadband and a device that you held in the hand would offer mass communication. Perhaps Dr Cooper needs to travel a little wider? Sony Ericsson handsets for India have to have AM radio so that the owners can listen to cricket because the FM network does not cover a wide enough region. Just how 4G will reach users that are yet to experience 1G is beyond me. I also do not think that the medical technology that he spoke of will have the scale to make it mass market. Some of the issues that we face in the mass market can be seen with the Social Business models. People do not want charity they just want a fair chance. Thus they are unlikely to accept something that we market as a poor man's phones as they aspire to be better. One of the Executives I spoke to told me of the difficulties he is having in India. In talking to a large FMCG company about a handset that would do all the business tasks they needed he discovered that the cost became an issue as it was the same a three months wages. "However in Bombay I see young guys riding a bike and using an E90 as they want to seem a success as our phone is cheaper than a car and gives the same status!" he said he frustration.

When it comes to the network on which we use mobiles we are seeing some interesting developments with LTE some seven years out from what will be commercial launch. OFDM gives the best bang for buck in terms of bandwidth, the metropolitan wifi networks show that mesh networks using wifi are not going to work and so broadband wireless will be either WiMAX or LTE. Looking at the size of demand the legacy element makes LTE the standard for those that already own mobile assets. The support for LTE by Networks across the globe means that now we can start to ask ITU to move forward with setting the standards and building trails.

This year they move the content providers to their own hall which shows that more people are trying to get media onto mobiles. But before you expect to watch video and network in real life with those that you have shaken hands with on Facebook/Bebo/MySpace et al you have to realise that the GSMA stuck them in a Hall that was away from the main group of halls. If content was import it would have been given Hall 2 or 1 the handset guys are still the main bankers for the event as demonstrated by the amount of people in Hall 8. I am still not an advocate for mobile data because I always find the experience somewhat similar to watching HD TV on a black and white screen, i.e. a disappointment. For mobile data to work what you need to do is significantly improve the handset screens and the coverage of the mobile networks data networks. Until that happens then the key data activities on a handset will be text based communication be that SMS/E-Mail/IM dependent on the market. None of these usages should happen when you are moving at a speed, especially if you are supposed to be in control of an car.

The introduction of RFiD to handsets means that a number of new banking services could be launched in developed markets. Germany looks like it will be an interesting place to be at the end of the year with a number of trials following on from the Vodafone and the German Train service.

Day Two @ MWC

2008-02-12T22:41:00.000Z

Second day walking the halls, catching up with friends and being introduced to new ones.

Managed to gain more knowledge as to what the next generation of mobile might look like and what it may be used for. The battle for 4G has already started as people in committee rooms discus just what is possible and how it may be deployed. The new standard for wireless looks like it will be something that is used more in laptops than in phones to start with. This will be a battle between the mobile players and Intel as to what is used in laptops alongside WiFi. I still have to ask if the dash to a business model that becomes based on Data is something that the Networks will do? But the evidence that in 2009 Vodafone will have a commercial network that is faster than the fibre at a cost to build a lot less than the £50/metre that fibre will cost means that if the in-building coverage can be resolved then 4G might just have a business case.

Have managed to continue my discovery of just what might play out in Mobile Banking by talking to a number of players and the issue seems to be a lack of trust between the Banks and Networks. Stored Value services provided by trusted third parties offer solutions for the Pre-paid sector but this not exactly high value transactions! Perhaps as Banks release message based services that are two way rather than alerts then we can look at some of faster deployments of payment programs. Edgar Dunn have written a report for the GSMA that explains that the development of M-Banking is a headline strategic play for Mobile Networks. Are these the same networks that said that the do not need third parties as they hold the billing relationships? Whilst the developers continue to be small players rather than significant organisations such as HP, IBM and Accenture who work in both the Mobile and Banking space then the M-Wallet risks looking SubPrime for some time to come.

Rounded off the day with a relaxed dinner with a small bunch brought together by Simon Rockman. Good to catch up with a few old friends and make some new ones. One more day of meetings and then a late night flight back to the UK to digest and edit all the information gained into something that might be useful and see me gainfully employed for the coming months.

Ist day at MWC

2008-02-11T19:47:00.000Z

After a long day on my feet looking at all things new in the mobile space I now have the time to think about what this years show is about.

In Hall 8 we have the handset manufacturers showing what they might have to take on Apple. I saw the Nokia Press Briefing and saw that they are hoping that the new N78 and N96 will be the big winners in the Computer in your hand fight with Apple. The dark horse may just be the Nokia 6220 Classic which could become the icon handset that every housewife and student has because it will most likely be Free on an 18 month contract for £20 per month. Over at the Sony Ericsson stand the excitement is for the Xperia X1 which the Product Manager had a tight hold of as he was giving demonstrations of just what could be expected come Q3 of this year. My current handset will not be replaced instead I can have the G900 which has a very interesting menu system and was very light to use and has some nice features when it comes to using the camera phone. Nothing on show from the other handset manufacturers that got much attension on my quick spin around the hall. The only other note for those reading this is make tracks for the Symbian stand as they have have imported a barrista from London to make the best coffees in the show and they are free (Thanks Christian for the tip, it was worth the trip and wait).

The big trend was for mobile payment, with a number of NFC devices that were either hardware or SIM based alongside the SMS based remitance services. Did not see much sign of the GSMA backed services from Visa and Mastercard but then I still have a number of halls to still cover.

The big push is in Ubiqutous coverage with yet more talk of Femtocells amd Picocells. Not much sign of the launch of HSUPA although I have managed to enjoy free connectivity thanks to an E220 USB Modem. My device was easy to install and will have to see if I can get the executive office to organise an Orange SIM that works in the UK when I return later this week. The next two days will see a number of meetings to catch up with old friends and learn more about how 3G will evolve into 4G.

Yahoo mess up again

2008-01-11T09:41:00.000Z

This week Yahoo launched the latest version of Yahoo Go 3.0 at the CES.

So yet again I went and tried to get the Java Application to work on my Symbian handset, and yet again they do not have a version that works with my Sony Ericsson. Oh well I thought I can upgrade the version that I am already running on two other handsets. You guessed it..they do not have versions that work on my Windows Smartphone or Nokia N93i. But both of these already have Go 2.0 so WTF.

Now when Go 2.0 was launched Christian Lindholm had a team in Europe who were developing the application. Last year the European Mobile group became no more than a sales team and the development was centralised to America. This means that Go 3.0 will be just as poor as 2.0 when it comes to customer uptake and that the number of handsets supported will be closer to the square route of -1.

The problem is that Go 3.0 is a great tool when it comes to simple mobile data services for someone like my other half who just wants a simple portal on her handset. After years of trying to get her to use her mobile I gave up and have left Her to use the handset as something that he controls and uses on the basis of an A&E device. Over the last year She has started to adopt some mobile services as she starts to communicate with our Twins who are now at Senior School. This has seen Her experiment with more and more things on her handset what she would now love to be able to do is check her Yahoo email account and some simple surfing Yahoo Go would be ideal for her but she has a Sony Ericsson K850i and it is not supported.

If Yahoo were serious about the Mobile sector then it would be working with everyone who makes mobile phones so that the software works on the handset even if it is not installed at the time of purchase. All the time that it fails to allign itself with the European Mobile community Yahoo has as much potential as Motorola in its post Razr stage.

MomoLondon and Voice

2007-12-04T09:20:00.000Z

Yesterday I was part of the Panel talking about Voice2.0 at the monthly Momo event in London.

Marcus Taylor demonstrated a product that he is developing for TfL for 2012 that looks interesting, somewhat like some of the demonstrations of the potential for Wildfire.

Simon Crowford then spoke of the developments at Spinvox, I may soon be able to dictate this blog on the basis of what I heard.

I then gave an overview of why Voice is important to mobile. Latest numbers show that it is not just the emerging markets that mobile holds over half of the total of voice calls made. I spoke about the fact that not a single Network has a Board Member for Voice despite the fact that 85% of revenues come from voice. Manage to talk about the lack of innovation in Voice and that 70% of calls are made in building which places it at risk from the fixed networks.

Christian Lindholm once again gave an excellent overview of Voice2.0 in which he highlighted the 3 Skype handset as the best phone in the world because it does Presence. He spoke of the fact that you can see who is available as well as the fact that it is not only a VoIP service and so quality is better than the free services from the likes of Fring.

Questions were interesting but not sure that the early adopters who are members of Momo understand that Voice is the future of what is basically a communication device.

Sunday Times looks into mobile banking

2007-12-03T09:32:00.000Z

Yesterday's Sunday Times had a good analysis about mobile banking. Just a shame that the vision of Orange has not been executed by the New Owners!

The final sections where they talk about Mobile Banking in the UK should be something that is read and understood by the GSMA before they start the push into Remittances. Once again the focus needs to be on micro payments rather than competing with Western Union for those Operators in Europe. My Polish builder returns home every 6-8 weeks on a cheap flight carrying cash, he trusts no one when it comes to his money.

However the ability to replace small value transactions with a simple test message will cut the ques at Starbucks and as the FT's Undercover Economist shows the use of gift cards is not something that everyone approves of. If you want to give a small present why not send it as a top up someones phone credit rather than a crisp new bank note?

The problem is that with five network operators we have too many billing systems to connect if we are to make m-money work. We cannot allow a third party to facilitate cross network payments as they would expect to be paid a commission. Perhaps we need to move towards structural separation and thus billing just becomes a service layer?

New steps in M-Payments

2007-11-28T08:25:00.001Z

Total Telecom reports that the Italian Post Office's MVNO will have a number of Payment services available in an effort to distinguish itself from it carrier Vodafone.

Thus we finally have a Western European network looking to offer customers replacement of paper money and coins. The Italian Banking environment is still what underdeveloped compared to most with a number of regional banks rather than National banks when it comes to the retail sector and so the Post Office is still a major player when it comes to payments. This makes the target of 2M subscribers look somewhat conservative. Perhaps they need to take a leaf out of Tesco's book and look to grow more aggressively?

I hope that they are successful, and I hope that the GSMA take note and start to back M-Payments for the benefit of the Market rather than a get rich quick scheme as the seem to be with the present remittance based approach. Perhaps if they engaged with consultants that know the payments market rather than Blue Chip accountants they would be more flexible and finally manage to develop Mobile Payments. But that is unlikely and this has all the hallmarks of the dotmobi plan to "get rich quick" rather than aid the market!

Another organisation that could do with some Consulting help is Transport for London who are pushing ahead with a trial of NFC based handsets from Nokia on the O2 network. Whilst I support the movement of my Oyster Card onto my handset I do not think that the use of the UK network with the worst billing system will be an effective proof of concept. The Independent today writes about the trial; something the Guardian did on Monday. This is the second trial that I know of, a very small test took place in the summer with some 200 people using handsets I hope that this one will be bigger. I would also have hopes that they tested on the other networks to see how the billing systems function there both Pre and Post-Paid.

UPDATE: The press release has now been sent out and what 500 lucky O2 customers can now expect is the use of a Nokia handset for the next six months whilst they trial the system. Thus we have no great leap forward, rather we can expect another small step.

I wonder if the move will force the other networks to open up mobile payments or if we can
expect to have to wait before we have open access. The good news is that it's not expected to work on an iPhone!

Future of Mobile

2007-11-20T17:50:00.000Z

Ian Hay from Orange has written the best review of last weeks Future of Mobile event.

Looks like Tony has got some new jokes. Others gave some interesting points, still not sure about the focus on data.

Perhaps Fog and I need to sit down with Ian and talk more about the Power of Voice in mobile.

The event itself looks like something I should try and attend when they next run it. Did want to go, if only to finally catch up with a few that I have not been able to since the Summer.

The Carnival hits 100

2007-11-20T08:08:00.001Z

Abhishek Tiwari hosts the hundredth Carnival of the Mobilist.

I have been an occasional submitter of posts and hosted the carnival twice myself. The Guys at Mobhappy had a wonderful idea and others have taken it forward. Over the past two years I have made a number of new friends and read some great counterpoints on all things wireless.

Here is to the next 100

Economist says that 2008 might be the year for m-payments

2007-11-18T11:48:00.000Z

I picked up the 2008 edition of the Economist's magazine The World in... and one of the features in the business sector was Buying and celling by Tom Standage which looked at how NFC will start to gain traction.

One of the data points that gained my attention was a graphic that shows that only in the US the population has more access to cash machines than mobile phone.

I still think that mobile payments face a challenge in the UK and US where we are too reliant on credit cards rather than bank cards. For M-Payments to work they have to be a replacement of paper and coin based payment rather than an alternative to electronic fund transfers. If mobile networks start to try and compete with Banks then the Banks are going to ask that they are regulated in the same manner. However if the networks can replace micropayments of a value of less than say $20 then we can look to a rosy future.

I think that the introduction of M-Payments will also reap benefits for customer retention, the Networks will seek to establish a stronger relationship with its customers which will see them move from PAYG to Contract. Once the mobile phone has more functionality than just talk and text consumers will be less price sensitive. The functionality will not in my view be the Internet it has to be something more than just a window.

Looks like I was not the only one that passed on the iPhone

2007-11-13T08:03:00.000Z

Reading the reports on the launch of the iPhone over the last 24 hours and it does not look like good news for Apple.

In the Telegraph O2 says that they had a great weekend and sold more phones than Carphone Warehouse. The interesting snippet was the spokeman saying that once you get people in the shop they can sell them something.

Over at Dialaphone they have a number of photos of empty CPW shops showing just how the UK wanted an iPhone after a week of wall to wall coverage.

Spoke to a few who might have been iPhone customers and they said that they have gone for the iTouch because it was a smart iPod without a poor phone.

Now I expect to see a new iPhone after Christmas that will improve on the launch handset. Will Steve say sorry to the mugs that bought one before the relaunch with another iTunes voucher? I am not too sure we are a long way from his main market.

What might the new handset have? It needs a better camera, faster radio and a full Bluetooth radio. It also needs a different business model for Europe, I am not the only one saying that the price is too high. Apple needs to realise that the consumer will not pay over £100/€150 for a handset and if they are to "tax" the networks for its iPhone customers it needs to drop the entry price.

The iPhone is coming

2007-11-05T08:24:00.000Z

This week O2 stepped up the marketing push for the iPhone. The FT ran a story that they expected to sell 200,000 handsets before Christmas. Peter Erskine was on the BBC radio spreading the word prior to launch on Friday.

Now in the run up to Christmas the UK will buy some 3Million handsets and so 200,000 does not look that great. The concern that I have is whilst the Apple store is always busy I just do not see the consumer demand once you have managed to use the phone. I think that a large number of those handsets sold by Carphone Warehouse could be returned by disappointed customers looking to get something that works.

Whilst I agree that O2 is a Consumer Network I do not think that many on the network are happy to pay over £45 per month. I can only see that the iPhone will not drive the business forward, rather it will expose the limited capability of the O2 network. I also do not think that the O2 and Apple brands are aligned. O2 claims that a third of all text messages are sent on its network, the latest figures show that over 1 billion were sent in the UK. As I and others have said the iPhone does not do text very well this is another reason why I say that it will not be the happy event that some are saying.

Watching TV last night and I saw my first iPhone advert and I have to say that I was not overly impressed. This was an advert that showed some of how the handset works.

Just hope that the Google Phone is something that breaks the game open when the covers come off this week.

Step back and ask who asked for this service

2007-10-30T09:13:00.000Z

Yesterday we saw 3 carry on with its disruptive approach to the mobile market with the launch of the Skypephone. Others have written how this is just the thing needed to break the walled garden and the arrival of free phone calls.

Last night the Gadget Show on Channel 5 here in the UK had a comparison of the iPhone against the Nokia N95. Time and again the two presenters showed how the American designed phone lacked the power Europeans demand in its camera, texting and connection speeds. However everyone want to look at the Apple phone because it was attractive.

Both these features meant that I was grumpy by the time I went to sleep as once again they demonstrated just what is wrong with Mobile at the moment. We are too focused on the latest technology than making sure what we have works.

What we need to look at is just who is going to buy a new service, and when they do are they going to be happy with the quality and price.

Taking the use of Skype, if I use it it is not because it is free it is because I know that I get to talk with someone rather than voicemail. Email no longer works with many of my contacts as they have a vast backlog of unread messages that means that too often the response comes too late. I use texts to set up a call with a few people because they are not on Skype. With Skype I check availability and then call on my mobile or landline because my monthly fee has a large call allowance which most months I do not fully use.

The free calls that 3 are promoting are on net Skype to Skype calls. This means that they in fact a closed community, if you want to call an real number then you are charge for it. Thus waht you have is a service that 3 hope will stimulate more calls terminating on its network in the same way that they were paying those onPAYG to receive calls. I do not think that the service is mass market and I do not think that its disruptive. I can see a few early adopters carrying a second or third handset to play with the service.

If rumours are to be believed this month Google will finally lift its skirts and show us what it has got in the way of a mobile phone service. Once again a few will say that they have seen the light and that the Internet has once again showed the dumb operators that open is best. What they might need to look at is the architecture models currently running in the networks that seeCAPEX cycles triggered when capacity hits 70% this is far lower than in the fixed world. This fact means that we have owners of the assets looking to manage traffic far more than those in the fixed world.

I know that this post is not well argued but then I am angry that once again hype has trumped logic. Use the comment box to ask a question or point out why I am wrong and I will respond in a more structured manner.

Evolution at work

2007-10-26T17:00:00.001+01:00

Yesterday I went to a railway arch in South London to here now Orange see the future of work.

It was interesting to see that mobile data is on the up turn. Last year the event was compared by an Orange Business SVP and this year we had a BBC journalist.

After five years the guys at Orange Business Services are getting good at staging such events that aim to show businesses now to use technology to manage the work force. This year we were not force feed that the solution requires Orange Broadband for home workers.

Robert Ainger presented the latest findings from Orange Future Enterprise on emerging work culture. I now know that I might be a Replicant or I could be working in a Mutual World whilst last year I was living in a data cloud with selective integration. It would have been good it the facilitators were better educated when talking about the future of work.

Over the last few weeks I have been listening to presentations about how IBM and Shell have been working on the future of work. We were also treated to some figures from Microsoft on how mobile and remote working is developing and how they themselves live using just such solutions. The next few weeks I am going to spend time looking more into the generational as well as the geographic differences of technology adoption. Can see myself investing time with a few of those that have made me think over the last few months about how things are coming together.

Why the photo, well I think it shows Orange addressing 52% of the population with something more than a Pink handset. The sad thing was that over the two hours it was working I did not see one person indulge. Perhaps those that were manning the stands enjoyed it once we all left.

A road map for the future

2007-10-24T15:52:00.001+01:00

Over the last few weeks I have been consulting more and more about what Mobile might look like in 2012.

An interesting element is that the mobile networks are remember that first and foremost they are telephone companies and thus voice needs to be at the core of what they do. I hope that Voice2.0 will see the network look at what they can do before, during and after a call. I hope that in the near term what we will see is the introduction of better call quality alongside something that gives presence information before I make a call.

I am less positive on what happens with mobile data with a fixation on taking what happens on the fixed web and making it viewable on a small screen. If you think people making phone calls whilst driving is bad, just sit behind a driver send a text message to see that motion and mobility is dangerous. However the ability to use voice to navigate a website is exciting, it is one of the things I love about my Opera browser. Imaging if the Mobile Network could let me find driving directions (using handsfree) on the basis that I am charged on a premium rate call for the few times that I am lost in a new town without a satnav. Orange once had a service called Wildfire that provided a voice driven PA, then they were bought by the French and it was closed. What it did have when it was running was a loyal user base who spent over twice what the ARPU numbers were.

Whilst I am happy to read a few RSS feeds from my favourite websites, very few of the headlines result in me loading the page in full. This blog was written on a laptop waiting to fly home after a business trip, it would not be done if I were using just a phone, that is done with twitter should I want to.

At present Mobile Data is still about SMS. The major money spiller is not one-to-one texts which are predominately part of a bundle, it is rather premium SMS services linked to TV promotions. In the UK this is something that we are going to see decline thanks to the current stream of fraud and scandal. So with fewer and fewer people texting to lose the writing on the wall is that the users are not demanding data services in big enough volumes.

I do not think that Orange will be the only network that changes the guard at the top of the business. With new management teams to be bedded in, we are not going to see large amounts of innovation. My fellow Consultants are looking a windfalls as new mandidates are given to undertake benchmarking projects. The only hope if you are a consumer is that 3 and T-Mobile continue to be disruptive. I do not expect the iPhone to be a major impact in the UK because they are not that great for those that send text messages.

The Futures Bright?

2007-10-22T09:22:00.000+01:00

The FT reports that Bernard Ghillebaert has been shown the door at Orange UK and that his replacement will be English and not a current FT employee.

Over the last few months I have become ever more frustrated at how far Orange had fallen from its heights. My day-to-day dealings with them have become a case book on how not to manage customers.

However a change of management will not change the business I am afraid that the move towards being more than a very good mobile phone company means that it has shifted to point that it cannot go backwards. I have never believed that convergence and multiple service offers work in telecoms. If you are Tesco's then you can cross sell to your customer base cheap what ever because they are in the market for cheap. However if you are offering an ever declining service what makes you think that someone will take more alternative services from you?

Would I accept the opportunity to once again consult to Orange?

I do not think that I would as the business is now an administration and stuck with meeting the demands of a distribution platform. Looking at the UK, Orange needs to say that the current infrastructure does not allow it to follow what happens in France and so something else is needed. I would advise them to look at the voice element of the business and at what can be done before, during and after a call takes place. Better voice quality will mean increased revenues, we are after all paying $1.3Trillion to use mobiles as a telephone and very little to watch TV, surf or shop!

UPDATE

The Independent had a short feature on Tom Alexander the man that Orange have turned to for leadership. Now a number of people that I have talked to this week have all said why? Tom you see does not need the money he was rich before NTL bought Virgin Mobile. He is also not very good at working in big companies, as anyone who knew him from is time at BT will tell you.

I have to say that the fact that the man he replaces has not been fired also speaks volumes. Just hope that the arrival of a new Chairman at FT will make things interesting.

Western Union's new mobile service

2007-10-19T08:01:00.000+01:00

Yesterday the GSM Association and Western Union announced that they had struck a deal to bring the Money Transfer Service to mobile.

An agreement to use the GSMA platform does not mean that the service will be available on all if any of the 35 operators networks that are taking part in the scheme.

This is something that I see as a backward step in Mobile Commerce. The introduction of Western Union has to be a backward step. With G Cash in the Far East it is a service that works because it's cheaper to use than Western Union. The same is true in South Africa. Thus in an effort to get traction for a product the GSMA have allowed the fox into the chicken house.

The whole platform in general is something that I see as likely to fail as others GSMA projects have because this is not something that is driven by Operator demand. This like .mobi is something that the GSMA sees as a way to raise income for itself. They have not been able to demonstrate that the consumer or the networks want any form of mobile remittance or mobile commerce product.

In working with the Operators on M-Payment solutions the first thing that they look at is the risk of being seen as a bank. If you start to undertake remittance based payments then you are competing with the Banks on a transaction that has a good profit margin, thus they will ask that you are regulated in the same way as they are. This is something that no mobile operator can accept because of liquidity requirements. However if you were to build a platform that replaced low value transactions and thus reduce the banks cost base then you can work in partnership providing that you have something that is available across all of the mobiles in a particular country. Getting everyone to join a micro payments based service is however very difficult, so far every attempt in the UK has ended in failure.

Now if the GSMA was a trade association rather than a commercial organisation it might be able to do something in the world of payments. This action show that they are about income for themselves even if it does evil.

Latest toys

2007-10-03T09:50:00.000+01:00

Since returning from my holiday I have replaced my handset with a new Sony Ericsson P1i and have a Jawbone as my headset.

The process has not been an easy one in terms of moving settings over from my old handset and setting up connectivity for data services from Orange. It has made me think that what's needed is some form of Vault which I can use to replicate what I have on one phone over to another. I did try to use a number of third party solutions but they did not cover all the basis. Orange were of little help because the handset is not yet available on their network and so they have no settings for it.

This got me thinking that the SIM free route for handset guys will require a huge investment in technical support which at present they don't have in place. If I pay someone over £200 pounds for a handset when my network give it for free they better have more than basic technical support available at the end of a 0870 number.

Over the last three weeks I have started to use it more and more as my only device. It does not take long to effectively use the Qwerty based keypad. The only draw back is when calling an IVR based Customer Services number that ask for two letters from you password and you have to quickly remember how to translate back to a numeric key pad. The keylock at times is a little to quick and for a handset this new I would have hoped for HSDPA data. Otherwise with a few mobile apps added to the standard set its very good. Having spoken ata number of events in the last two weeks the card scanner is excellent.

With Jawbone I have to date been very happy with the headset, its light, does not get in the way of my glasses and the audio quality is first rate. Battery life is great. The downside is that the dust cover keeps falling off and its only a question of time before I lose it.

Wonder if I will keep this handset until Christmas or am I going to be tempted by something more shinny?

Thoughts from Carriers World

2007-10-01T17:49:00.000+01:00

Last week I spent a day listening and talking to the wholesale telecoms world. A few interesting points came out of the conversations.

The Carriers are only just now tarting to understand and plan for the demands of Mobile Networks. Looking at the backhaul network for one major mobile network who are running HSDPA they are using 2M lines, so I guess that explains why the service is slow even thought very few of your customers have signed up for it! It also places a massive question market over any data services because of the potential for a bottleneck that stops everything working.
Customers still want voice, and lots of it! The rise of Voice thanks to VoIP offerings has been something that the Carriers have not been forecasting. One presentation by Lycatel showed that rather than cannibalise revenues the introduction of MVNO services in mainland Europe has seen revenue growth on the calling card side of the business.

A few of those present went on to talk about development in voice services, such as the Cisco Conferencing Suites that use enhanced voice solutions to improve the call quality. Having had some experience of the early video conferencing solutions move to the desktop I have to say that all is well until the CEO decides to try the service whilst skiing and cannot understand why the difference between his experience on ADSL and the fibre solution at the office.

The wake up call for me was that even after 20 plus years of having a mobile arm the wholesale demands are not fully understood by the Carriers. Just how can you to run data services as a mobile firm if your standards are different from the provider of Backbone connectivity? Even the understanding of IP standards does not seem to be the same? Security provides interesting headaches because on a carrier network they don't have SIMS that carry the ID management and so require protection across the whole network. Does this mean that my next generation handset will be getting bigger rather than smaller?

More Truephone "good news"

2007-10-01T17:42:00.000+01:00

Truephone has demoed its software running on an iPhone just as Apple lock down handsets that have been hacked.

Will we see Truephone take Apple to court when they get locked out? They say that they have every right to run on the Apple platform using the browser and wifi to make calls.

Guess they have not read that one of the key elements in any iPhone deal is that Mr Jobs not only gets the tribe to pay top dollar for his equipment he also gets a share of the revenues. Hope that the Truephone guys can make the app work on a Touch because they wont get it to work on an iPhone for long.

Wonder if they can demo it on the T-Mobile network next month when it goes live in Germany?

We don't need no TV on our Phone

2007-08-02T17:41:00.000+01:00

Today's Guardian reports that we are not a nation of Television addicts when it comes to watching on your mobile.

Now I have long said that Mobile TV is this years MMS, Gaming ...... in that this is an application that the user has not asked for but rather the Marketing Department thinks we will pay for. When you look at the Far East mobile TV works because the population density is such that choice is limited when you live in a tiny apartment and the nature of work means that watching TV when you are having lunch works. The content you have to remember is not broadcast but side loaded on the whole.

Now the Networks are not interested in side loaded content because it does away with the network and stops the user from using the phone to send texts etc.

Perhaps a few more reports that show Mobile TV is a dead donkey and the networks will drop the idea and focus on improving the voice quality. I have to report that too many calls have been dropped or of poor quality on my 3G handset this wonderful English summer. At the height of the flood watch I had to revert back to my land line because I needed to make a call and could not relied on Orange to maintain the call.

We don't need no y

2007-08-02T17:40:00.000+01:00

Independent asks are we being ripped off by the mobile companies?

2007-08-01T18:12:00.000+01:00

Today's Independent has a two page spread in the hardcopy version of the Paper that talks about the UK mobile industry being the best functioning cartel in Britain.

Among the various data points that it uses to back up just how the consumer is ripped off are the gems:-

£1.8Bn worth of mobile calls and texts included in monthly contracts go unused each year.
It's 10 times cheaper for Vodafone to connect a call to China Mobile than to connect the same call to the 3 network in the UK.
You pay 12 times more to send a text than NASA does to get data from the Hubble space telescope
Mobiles with Wi-Fi are a big headache for the networks as users can call for free.

I guess that the technology editor at the Independent is not as good as the old one. Because when you start to read the ten points what you see are a number of plugs for the likes of Vyke; Opera Mini,Uswitch, Rebtel, Fring, Skype, and Truephone. The other issues are that Termination Rates need to be taken into consideration when you start talking about on net and off net calls. When you talk about the cost of a text message please remember that a significant number are bundled into those that are post paid. O2 are ending the i-mode service and so the data price is a mute point.

The reason that I felt the need to blog after a month of not doing so is that what was not talked about is that we are making more calls from our mobiles than ever before. The reason that more and more are going mobile only is that the networks are including too many minutes for the average user to consume, they are working on the principle that a significant number of calls end in telephone tag. As such any money the lose by giving the customer buckets of minutes is more than recovered by people terminating calls on their network. With the reduction of termination rates forced by OFCOM we could see bundles srink, another unintended consequence like the EU cap on roaming rates.

As someone who makes a good living from the mobile industry I do have a vested interest. However I also think that in the last 15 years a significant number of people have benefited from the mobile boom. For example, last year I was talking to a building who said "getting a mobile made a real difference to my life not only did it increase the amount of work I could do it also meant that my wife got a job because I no longer had her staying home just to take messages. I would say that my money tripled because people could call me direct regardless of where I am."

I guess you only feel that your mobile is a rip off if it is not helping make life better, if you are making more money because you have a mobile then its a cost worth paying. As forcartel I think the terms is best left to the Airlines on the basis of the fines handed down today to BA.

IPhone, just around the corner.....

2007-06-26T10:25:00.001+01:00

...but is happiness?

The Financial Times has been running a number of articles in the run up to the launch of the iPhone. Yesterday John Gapper wrote about how the iPhone might force the Mobile Networks might just have to fix the network as owners of demand data rates closer to DSL. Side loading of content shows that Apple do not trust the networks at present, I have to agree the last few weeks of rain has once again demonstrated that the Orange 3G network is far from built here in London.

Today Kevin Allison's analysis is about the risk Apple has taken in entering the Mobile phone sector. The Industry Insiders who have commented have all taken the opportunity to have a dig at the fact that technically the iPhone is not up to the technical standards of 3G handsets in terms of form and the only benefit is that it has a full operating system.

Whilst I agree that in terms of Form the iPhone is not a natural evolution of mobile phones the issue is that 3G may have passed. You only have to look at the fact that many consumers are just not interested, if they were then Motorola would not have managed to ship 100M V3 handsets over the last three years.

Whilst I await the launch of test devices in Europe I am prepared to hold fire on the iPhone, but I expect that the PR machine at Apple to continue to drive interest. Talking with others it seems that the strategy for Europe will differ rumour has it that Carphone Warehouse, Vodafone and T-Mobile will be the launch partners rather than an exclusive deal with a single network.

Some interesting data points

2007-05-25T15:11:00.000+01:00

Technology Guardian has an opinion piece by Victor Keegan that highlights some interesting data about the Mobile Internet. He outlines that the reason that the mobile web is more important than the fixed one is that it comes with its own built in payment mechanism. It is this fact that means that the Crazy Frog made more money than all of iTunes in 2006.

The problem is that the cost of transit is a key element of the $31Bn revenues and just like the net did not take off until broadband and unlimited the lack of unlimited net access is holding back development. Whilst I agree that this may be true, I also contend just how many Mobile Users ask for a data package; if you get to see the internal numbers for some of the networks the fact that they have added millions of new accounts in the last year is not reflected in how many of those have taken a data account to go with it. I still contend that most people want a phone just to send texts and make calls. If it was a price issue then those in the mobile networks could fix it by opening the mobile web, know that unlikely the fixed operators they would still make money thanks to their control of the payments platform.

Today's Economist has a feature about the rise of the ebook on your mobile in Japan, the print edition shows a row of women reading the screens of their mobile phones. The market has sprung up over the last five years to the point that it is now worth $82m a year and is still growing fast. Whilst the use of Mobile Data in the Far East is important I have learnt that the fact that using your mobile to make a call on in public is not something that is seen as polite, a large number of the public commute for over three hours a day and that the housing situation means that denisity levels are close to a battery farm all mean that shaping a business on what happens in Japen or Korea is a very high risk.

Keith has what I consider to be the best comment on the populist nature of the EU war on Roaming Rip Offs. I guess as a Business User on a Contract the fact that most of my calls last over 2 minutes and that I travel alot mean that the EU think that I am using a service such as Awayphone!

Rememberance of things past

2007-05-24T15:44:00.000+01:00

So following my lunch this week I set about trying to find the 2001 Keynote by Douglas Adams. I start off by using Google to seek out the GSMNewsReel video I remember watching on my return from Cannes six years ago - and get no joy. However I do get the opportunity to read a number of posts that talk about what the Mobile world will look like once we go 3G; also I get to see that Douglas Adams not only invented Babblefish but he could also have claimed to be a key driver in the development of User Generated Content and Wiki's thanks to H2G2.

The I use Ask and it does better than Google in that it locates a transcript of Douglas Adams address and a review from the GSMNewsReel of all those that spoke in 2001. Still no joy finding the video, have asked if a contact at the GSMA can find the footage in their archieve and send me a copy, if get lucky I will post it up so that you can all see what he is said at the time.

Looking back at the past I got a number of snipets which with hindsight can be seen with a different light. Branson spoke before Adams at Cannes and he "put forward a convincing argument in favour of MVNOs, explaining that they can enhance revenue streams, they're cheap to establish and that they offer solid risk diversification. In the never-ending search for the winning data strategy, an extra operator on your satisfactory discovery, he said. He called forth examples from the motor industry and the music industry where the virtual model has proven success. His words of advice in this area were clear. Shareholder buy-in from the host, decent distribution, a general rather than niche approach to the market and access to the meaningful content are all pivotal elements of success, he said."

I wonder if Virgin Media are following the same Strategy today as part of the Quad Play we see today, heck I wonder if they have a strategy that allows them to compete with Tesco Mobile. As an MVNO we see in Tesco an excellent example of Consumer choice, some 1.8M subscribers have opted to get their mobile with their milk. Not for them some fast moving world of Mobile Data, just basic voice and text thanks along side a value handset - all of which ties in with what Douglas Adams told those in Cannes back in 2001.

Interesting thought on Mobile

2007-05-22T21:32:00.000+01:00

Today I had lunch with Christian Lindholm and Dan Applequist, the sun came back to town and so I decided to let the conversation flow rather than just clockwatch after having a meeting cancelled.

Christian has been working for Yahoo but before that he was the lead for the S60 at Nokia and is very much a UI guy. Dan is one of the founders of MobileMonday in London and thanks to his day job at Vodafone has a role on a numberof standards boards for Mobile Internet. I have over the past year had a number of chats in interesting places but this is the first time that we have spoken.

The two guys are a lot more technical than myself, and as such approach a situation from different levels. Both have a higher public profile thanks to the fact that they speak at a number of events and thus probably have a wider group of associates. They both see the Mobile Interne as something that is starting to take off and is important to the Mobile sector. Now that Christia is paying his own bills he has become interested in new tools that allow him to speak with his friends worldwide without being ripped off by his network.

Whilst we agreed that the Network and the Handset makers are important we also said that niether as yet own the customer. This fact offers a wide number an opportunity to succeed in the Mobile space. In putting the world to rights we thought that the key areas are PIM replication and the use of the SIM toolkit to allow improved security and payment of content.

One of the points that came out was the fact that services such as Cognima and Wildfire would today have a high take up, but the fact that they were killed by the networks sometime ago means that a relaunch would be difficult. The other issue is that any data service has to overcome the fact that SMS is such a cashcow for the networks anything that stops users send texts has a very high hurdle to clear.

The interesting point for me as I made my way home tonight is that a lot of what we are trying to do today on Mobile we have been trying for a very long time. The development is still a way off and the guys who might be the ones to achieve are goals are those who at first we did not trust rather than the network and the handset guys.

I still think that the mobile is a phone first and that voice needs to be at the centre of what we all do. Perhaps next time we need to light the bar-b-que and spend the time talking in detail now that we have started these thoughts, I guess I will find out if Christian and Dan follow up on today!

I am off to see if I can find Douglas Adams keynote at GSM World before Christian.

74th Carnival of the Mobilists

2007-05-21T19:08:00.000+01:00

Martin was the editor and hoast of this weeks Carnival and he has included my post on Widgets. Go and have a look at what some of the best bloggers are saying about mobile this week, I am still reading what others thought were interesting. Am planning to post a responce on a few other blogs once I have slept on first impressions.

Image from Madeira Web of Carnival Weekend thanks to Google Image search :-)

Is it Widgets that are going to save Mobile Data?

2007-05-15T09:24:00.000+01:00

Last night's Mobile Monday was focused on Widgets as part of a larger programme in London. Sitting and listening to the presentations, it was like a Digital People event in 2001 at times the difference being that the hype came from established companies.

Now the fact that Widgets are something that allows users to open windows to the web on non -web pages amongst other things is a tool that might just drive Mobile Data. However I have a problem in that whenever I look at an analysis of YouTube it shows that most of the visitors are passive rather than content generators, therefore Widgets need to be extremely simple to use and personalise if they are to go mass market.

If Widgets are to be something that is used more than the FM radio on a Phone they they need to replace the idle screen rather than be drilled down for on the handset. If they stay somewhere in the menu too many people will find it very difficult to frequently use. So in placing the Widget on the idle screen you have an issue with power management. I do not want something that will see my battery fade faster than if I was stuck on the tube for a morning!

The next problem I have with Widgets is that at times they fail because the Network is broken. Last night I decided to try Widgets on the two phones that I carry. The first is a Sony Ericsson P990i on Orange all the way home I could not get a data connection that was usable, this is not uncommon with the 3G network I usually find myself having to downshift to GPRS to check my email. How why would Orange want to upgrade its data network just so I can use them as a transit service? So far they have not shown any will to do so; in fact they are making it harder for customers to personalise handsets and services, the last two handsets they have sent me have been locked to an Orange profile which means a number of functions have been removed to force the user to use Orange alternatives.

My other handset is a Windows Mobile device with HSDPA on the T-Mobile network. Here the issue is far simpler the midlet manager just does not seem to be able to run the widgets that i downloaded. Maybe it will be better when I have upgraded to Windows Mobile 6.0 but I am not too sure.

Too many of the presentations last night used the same quotes on the future of Widgets. At present I fear that Widgets could end in the same group as Video Calling, MMS, Mobile TV and Mobile Gaming the great white hope for alternative services! Widgets need to be something that are easy to find and install, preferably they should be on the handset when you get it. That means they need to be supported by the Networks. Thus I fear that Widgets might be still born.

A Lost Opportunity...

2007-05-12T16:25:00.000+01:00

..was able to catch up with a few friends this week and all of them spoke about Orange. The common theme being that five years ago they felt that the Network was capable of driving forward when it came to 3G and how they have dropped the ball.

On a simple level, the question for the French is would they rather have an excellent network or a pile of cash?

However it is not as simple as that. With more Intelligent Design they could have given users a mobile network that would have delivered the vision presented at the time of the 3G auctions. We looked at just what was possible, and soon became disappointed about just how Orange seem to have lost any focus. On a very simple level, when you visit the Orange website, just how hard is it to buy a phone?

Talking about the market outside of the UK and what you see is that Music is something that works in Europe and further, in Spain and Italy over 20% of digital Music is downloaded onto a mobile.

How that we have a system that means that Data services are able what was the reason for closing Wildfire? This was a service that was used by high spending Contract customers that allowed them to have an extended PIM service. Mobile Web 2.0 is about mash-ups and widgets, perhaps when I attend MoMo London next week I might see something that replaces Wildfire, will it be able to run on my Orange Sony Ericsson handset, I do not think so!

Someone from Orange told me that they were doing well in Prepaid with 18% of new customers being SIM only. My reply, what is there to be proud of the fact that most of your new customers feel that taking a contract over 18 months is not worth a free handset!

With a change of the guard at Orange would we be able to sit down in a few years and say that with a man who is focused on Customer Service they have once again got there MOJO back? The only way that we will know if things are changing is that the number of Advisors declines and products are killed off to allow them to focus on the basics.

Another missed opportunity for m-payment

2007-05-08T15:44:00.000+01:00

Today's Guardian has a feature on new contactless payment cards for micropayments. The service is due to start in London this Autumn and the roll out nationally. The service is aimed at those looking to make payments of less than £10 and will need a pin number to validate on a random basis.

So once again we have the mobile networks missing out, if SIMPAY was still in operation then we might have seen this service miss out the Contactless Cards and move straight to mobile. This is something that I would have used for my Daughters when they start secondary school in September. We are about to open two bank accounts for them that will have SOLO cards that allow them to make micropayments. If Orange had woken up to the opportunities for M-Payment then they would have got a larger share of my Daughters pocket money.

I guess that the fact that the former head of M-Payment at Orange has left to joining Microsoft demonstrates the lack of commitment to the product!

Others in MoMo pointing fingers at Mobile Commerce

2007-04-30T09:30:00.000+01:00

Thanks to Ged, I picked up on the MoMo Global post about Jupiter's report on too many initiatives in mobile payments are slowing development - will have to send this to GSMA and see if they agree that!

Yesterday the Sunday Times had a feature on how GSMA and Mastercard were going to bring credit cards to the phone by this time next year! As I said last week I don't think so. Catching up at the London MoMo event this month with some who have been working on mobile payments for the last few years they said that the depressing thing is that the US are driving a number of trials that failed in Europe FIVE years ago.

I believe that payment services are key to the mobile industries long term growth. In South Africa they launch of M-Cash on the MTN network has seen a shift socially with an underclass now able to access banking services as well as payment of welfare services. In Europe I see M-Payment as something that could move the customer base from prepaid to postpaid services. Such a transition would be allow the networks to control costs, in the UK £4Billion is sent each year by networks on SAC. It could also mean that if we are to progress down the NFC route are handset can become much more than phone. What about using the handset as a key for example, such a development could see me gain access to my house, start my car and enter offices.

Nokia and others try another M-Wallet push

2007-04-26T09:20:00.000+01:00

Reuters reports that Nokia, Mastercard and GSMA have released a few more details on the trial that they plan for October!

The technology used is yet to be outlined in detail; as well as Nokia, Samsung and LG have signed up along with a number of tier two networks. No sign that this is something that as yet has the backing of those who failed with SIMPAY.

This looks like fluff to me! The mobile commerce trails that have become products are based on the replacement of paper money rather than the expansion of electronic cards. When I travel to mainland Europe the locals are still big users of Paper Money it is only here in the UK and in the US where you find people trying to pay for a coffee with a card!

Whilst I agree that some form of mobile payment system will evolve I think that it will be as a form of replacement to paper and coins and not an adjunct to cards. I would like to be able to ring fence a funds that I give my twins when they start traveling to school on their own so that it can only be used for transit systems, school food purchases and say WH Smiths as well as airtime on their phones. I do not want to discover that they have had the phone taken off them by someone on the bus who has then used the credit to buy Vodka and Fags!

Thus what I see as mass adoption of M-Payments will be for micro payments i.e. those of less than £10 and the fees for these need to be lower than the current charges made by Mastercard and Visa. Not sure if this is news, could just be a slow day for Reuters!

Telebusillis calls it like it is

2007-04-19T09:50:00.000+01:00

Kieth has turned his analytical brain to the fallacy of mobile VoIP with the excellent post on now Truphone might be good a PR but they are not great at forming a business plan. As with my post yesterday about how the Dragon got it wrong Truphone does not compare like with like.

SKYPE no longer say that they are a VoIP play they say that they are a Messaging platform. Vonage have discovered that their business plan is flawed. Look at the number of me to services for VoIP that have closed the shop when it comes to consumer VoIP. Truphone should no better because of their history with Gosiptel.

The likes of Orange do not see VoIP as a threat, they look at the service and say at present it is not fit for purpose. They also like the fact that just such a service allows them to demonstrate where the value sits in the current customer proposition.

Before anyone moves toward a new service based on VoIP we first need to get the user based off prepaid and onto post paid. This is something that I just don't see happening too soon as it would result in the Networks having to reduce the current subscriber numbers to reflect the real numbers.

Dragon Flames the MNOs....

2007-04-18T16:13:00.000+01:00

The Comment section of today's Financial Times carries a story by Doug Richards once of Dragons Den on the BBC in which he set about explaining that we will soon see the likes of Vodafone, Orange and T-Mobile consigned to the History Books. Mr Richards explains that thanks to being overcharged we will soon dump these international networks and start using free VoIP.

Now rather than deconstruct Mr Richards opinion I have decided to take an approach similar to that used by the Dragons on the TV programme.

Mr Richards lets first look at the fact that the majority of the users on Mobile Networks in the UK are not price sensitive, if they were then they would have dumped Prepaid for one of the contract tariffs that give away so much value.
How technology savvy will my mother have to be to use such a service; having been a tester on the BT Bluephone project using a mobile that roams from hotspot to hotspot at present takes a fair degree of technical skills to maintain a database of profiles and switch to the right one?
As most users buy a handset on the basis of its features, how do you propose to overcome the issues of battery life when running WiFi?
How often have you dropped a call using SKYPE and do you think that it would be acceptable when you add the complexity of movement?

Look it is a nice idea but look inside the average persons wallet and you will see that they have more than one payment card. You do not need more than one credit card but you take as many as you are offered you do not dump the bank because it has ripped you off with its charges you keep using it. True some are starting to fight back and ask that the overcharging stop and the money that was taken be returned to them but very few are doing so. The retail banking industry is a lot older than the mobile phone business and it has taken a lot longer for the customers to start to complain, I can see Vodafone and Orange being around for a good few years. I for one would happily pay a fee for customer service and no adverts.

The nightmare that you paint could see my daughter having to watch an advert for McDonalds and Starbucks before having enough credit to phone NHS Direct for Obesity advice ;-).

I have heard enough and I am out!

3rd Party Marketing starts to get kicked in to touch.

2007-04-09T08:47:00.000+01:00

Catching up on the Sunday Papers and I see that someone at the Sunday Times also hates the bombardment of "Update Calls" on their Mobile.

The Good News is that it seems that the Mobile Networks have woken up to the fact that such actions upset the Customers and have started to take action! The story explains that the big three networks have started to attack those agencies that have set up call centres that are aimed at getting customers to upgrade/churn.

I guess this is one good point, would also have been excellent to see that having done so the Networks then put out a Press Releas to the effect that Company X just got canned by us because they are scumbags and not only do we not want anything to do with them we are taking them to court for missrepresentation. That way I would not have so many friends and family complaining that they have been stung by such cowboys.

It seems that Orange have got a grip over the past few weeks as I have not had as many calls as I was getting at the start of the year. I just wish that they did some form of outbound marketing that said that it was a scam in the first place and we would not have seen the thing mushroom to the extent that at one stage I was getting over twenty calls a day offering me a new handset when I upgraded.

Did Orange just hit the panic button?

2007-04-08T20:24:00.000+01:00

Today's Observer has a short articles on how the new two year contract is not a good deal. They say that at the end of the term the consumer has a redundant handset!

Welcome to the Corporate World!

I am sure that by the end of the Summer all of the other networks will be pushing the same two year deals over the present eighteen month deals. In such a move the Consumer will be educated as to the real costs of telecoms, if we are still to get £500 handset then we will have to used to paying £35 for a few more months than we are at present or commit to a bigger monthly fee. Along with the SIM only deals that will allow consumers to see where the costs sit at present for the Networks I think that by the end of this year we will see a change in the perceptions of the mobile consumer.

We are just going to have to get used to paying for our handset in some form!